Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Runner

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Runner Sports game?

Sports + Runner

Of 67 developers who shipped a Runner Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 67 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 34 developers shipped in the last year and 67 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 67 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Runner
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 67
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $180 → $719 → $239 → $419 → $1.2k → $0 (still earning) → $238 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Runner: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 67
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $238 (exactly $238)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 5% $27k (exactly $26,820)
Developers, 2 yr 67
Released games 247
Announced 67
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Runner; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Racing, Arcade
Price point
$5.00 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.00.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 932 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $240, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $26k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 44 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 67 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TrackDayR · EA older $24.99 2,213 86% 66k $1.7M (exactly $1,659,086) MadCow S.r.l.
STRIDE older $19.99 1,975 79% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,184,408) Joy Way
pureya older $5.99 2,242 96% 67k $403k (exactly $402,887) Majorariatto
DeathSprint 66 older $19.99 495 83% 15k $297k (exactly $296,852) Sumo Digital
Moto Racer 4 older $14.99 343 60% 10k $154k (exactly $154,247) Artefacts Studio
VR Skater older $19.99 222 86% 6.7k $133k (exactly $133,133) DEFICIT Games
Nippon Marathon older $14.99 274 89% 8.2k $123k (exactly $123,218) Onion Soup Interactive
Rocket Boots Mania $14.99 229 99% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Luma Play
HerrAnwalt: Lawyers Legacy · EA older $5.99 471 78% 14k $85k (exactly $84,639) Yannick
The Alto Collection older $9.99 263 94% 7.9k $79k (exactly $78,821) Land & Sea
Fresh Tracks $24.99 53 94% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Buffalo Buffalo
Catch Me $5.99 178 70% 5.3k $32k (exactly $31,987) Doorway Games
Stardust Skate $2.99 299 98% 9.0k $27k (exactly $26,820) VchiBan, Aetha
Ala Mobile $14.99 43 74% 1.3k $19k (exactly $19,337) CVi Games
Moto Rush Reborn $12.99 43 97% 1.3k $17k (exactly $16,757) Baltoro Games
Hobby Horse $14.99 29 89% 870 $13k (exactly $13,041) Games Incubator
DRAFTYCAR 2 · EA $14.99 24 95% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Speedway Labs
Derby Heroines: Run, Bet, Win! $14.99 17 94% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) SHINISE GAMES, MFC STUDIO
Nippon Marathon 2: Daijoubu · EA $10.99 17 94% 510 $5.6k (exactly $5,605) Onion Soup Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.