Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Sports game?

Sports + Psychological Horror

Only 14 developers shipped a Psychological-Horror Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Pro Cycling Manager 25, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $2.2k against a market of $630. 13 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 1545% on the market, 13 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.9k → $1.4k → $598 → $1.4k
Outcomes for Sports + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,246)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,193)
Top 5% $595k (exactly $595,051)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 103
Announced 13
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1545% on the market, supply 65% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Basketball
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 1,250 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $590k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ben and Ed older $9.99 4,592 82% 138k $1.4M (exactly $1,376,222) Sluggerfly
Mount Your Friends older $4.99 5,130 95% 154k $768k (exactly $767,961) Stegersaurus Software Inc.
Ricochet older $4.99 4,549 82% 136k $681k (exactly $680,985) Valve
AFL 23 older $59.99 370 45% 11k $666k (exactly $665,889) Big Ant Studios
Pro Cycling Manager 25 $39.99 496 75% 15k $595k (exactly $595,051) Cyanide Studio
Adorables older $29.99 502 80% 15k $452k (exactly $451,649) White Rabbit
House of Detention older $0.99 8,413 91% 252k $250k (exactly $249,866) Aniki, Male Union ♂
Golf Around! older $9.99 823 94% 25k $247k (exactly $246,653) Hough Studio
Wordle 5 older $30.62 242 73% 7.3k $222k (exactly $222,301) PreoNus Games, Galina Kovaleva
COCKHEAD older $6.99 613 63% 18k $129k (exactly $128,546) Yoba Games
KUNKUN Defender 2 $4.99 294 94% 8.8k $44k (exactly $44,012) Seal
Midnight Hoops $3.49 262 89% 7.9k $27k (exactly $27,431) netshrub
Splash Shot Golf Legend $19.99 22 54% 660 $13k (exactly $13,193) TANUKIHOUSE
Only Trump: Up To Presidents! $8.99 40 67% 1.2k $11k (exactly $10,788) Gamesforfarm, Piece Of Voxel
Virtual Girlfriend $4.99 55 30% 1.7k $8.2k (exactly $8,234) SoerGameStudio
KAYAKING $4.99 15 86% 450 $2.2k (exactly $2,246) MOTIVITY
Muscle Ninja VR $7.99 6 100% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Marudice
Spin to Survive $2.99 16 93% 480 $1.4k (exactly $1,435) Seal
The Night Gym $0.99 44 54% 1.3k $1.3k (exactly $1,307) Fireplay Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.