Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Time Manipulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time Manipulation Sports game?

Sports + Time Manipulation

Only 5 developers shipped a Time Manipulation Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Pro Football, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.2k against a market of $630. 4 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 4 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Time Manipulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Sports + Time Manipulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 5% $7.9k (exactly $7,913)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 25
Announced 4
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Time Manipulation
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 6,634 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $1.9k, 1 in 20 over $7.9k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 4 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
F1® Manager 2024 older $34.99 5,554 83% 167k $5.8M (exactly $5,830,034) Frontier Developments
Arizona Derby older $18.99 601 77% 18k $342k (exactly $342,390) Falcon Interactive
Score a goal (Physical football) older $2.99 247 66% 7.4k $22k (exactly $22,156) BulatHard
Score a goal 2 (Physical football) older $2.99 109 71% 3.3k $9.8k (exactly $9,777) BulatHard
Pro Football · EA $11.99 22 100% 660 $7.9k (exactly $7,913) Dayra Studio
Climb VR New York Parkour older $19.99 12 25% 360 $7.2k (exactly $7,196) SRİO
Draw the Road older $4.99 32 87% 960 $4.8k (exactly $4,790) ·
Friendship Club · EA older $11.99 8 75% 240 $2.9k (exactly $2,878) Force Of Habit, Clockwork Cuckoo
Hole in the Clouds older $2.99 31 100% 930 $2.8k (exactly $2,781) Shortbread
Déjà Drift · EA older $4.99 18 100% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) BAR Interactive
Chat Ragdoll Racing · EA $4.99 13 100% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Scuffed Gamedev, Samuli Salonen, Marcus… (Scuffed Gamedev, Samuli Salonen, Marcus Rose)
RC: Car Maniacs $4.99 8 62% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) GH Games
MERIDIAN $0.99 2 50% 60 $59 (exactly $59) Alexander Kosenko
Chase & Crash $0.99 2 100% 60 $59 (exactly $59) IOIO GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.