Do I ship it?

Games › Sports › Sports + Match 3

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Match 3 Sports game?

Sports + Match 3

Only 7 developers shipped a Match 3 Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Magatch, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 3 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $0 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 5 developers shipped in the last year and 3 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.0 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 3 announced, ×0.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Match 3
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Sports + Match 3: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $0 (exactly $0)
Top 25% $1.7k (exactly $1,676)
Top 5% $5.1k (exactly $5,095)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 45
Announced 3
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Match 3
Price point
$3.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 97% positive over 133 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $0, 1 in 4 over $1.6k, 1 in 20 over $5.0k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 3 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Magatch 2025 · $5.1k Brain Games 2021 · $4.9k Date With a Girl: Mahjong 2021 · $2.8k Touhou Mini Map 2023 · $2.6k The lost Labyrinth 2020 · $2.4k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Magatch $9.99 17 94% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Gamesforgames
Brain Games older $5.99 27 81% 810 $4.9k (exactly $4,852) Serhii Khramov, Dmytro Pohrebnyi, Ivan… (Serhii Khramov, Dmytro Pohrebnyi, Ivan Shutko, Illia Ustenko)
Date With a Girl: Mahjong older $4.99 19 73% 570 $2.8k (exactly $2,844) Husushumi
Touhou Mini Map older $2.99 29 75% 870 $2.6k (exactly $2,601) Tai Yi
The lost Labyrinth older $8.99 9 100% 270 $2.4k (exactly $2,427) Green Sauce Games
Hentai Fight Club older $3.99 16 6% 480 $1.9k (exactly $1,915) Ero Team Triangle
HOT HOLES $3.99 15 100% 450 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) SWEET LIPS Publishing
My hot beach vacation older $4.99 12 16% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Ero Team Triangle
JENTRIX older $7.99 7 100% 210 $1.7k (exactly $1,678) Arcadia
LOVE 2077 $3.99 14 92% 420 $1.7k (exactly $1,676) SWEET LIPS Publishing
TOYS 18+ $3.99 14 100% 420 $1.7k (exactly $1,676) SWEET LIPS Publishing
DIRTY VAMPIRES $3.99 14 100% 420 $1.7k (exactly $1,676) SWEET LIPS Publishing
SEX POLICE $3.99 14 100% 420 $1.7k (exactly $1,676) SWEET LIPS Publishing
SEX CLUB $3.99 13 100% 390 $1.6k (exactly $1,556) SWEET LIPS Publishing
SEX SECRET $3.99 12 100% 360 $1.4k (exactly $1,436) SWEET LIPS Publishing
HOT FOOTS $3.99 12 100% 360 $1.4k (exactly $1,436) SWEET LIPS Publishing
Hentai Sora $0.99 8 75% 240 $238 (exactly $238) Cyber Keks

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.