Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Tower Defense

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tower Defense Sports game?

Sports + Tower Defense

Only 8 developers shipped a Tower Defense Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Descenders Next, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $4.2k against a market of $630. 4 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 6.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 4 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Tower Defense
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Sports + Tower Defense: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $809 (exactly $809)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Top 25% $44k (exactly $44,012)
Top 5% $350k (exactly $349,983)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 40
Announced 4
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Tower Defense
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Tower Defense
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 789 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $810, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $44k, 1 in 20 over $340k.

3 in 10 developers made under $810. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 4 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Descenders Next · EA $29.99 389 79% 12k $350k (exactly $349,983) RageSquid
Iron Sea Defenders older $14.99 305 81% 9.2k $137k (exactly $137,158) Creobit
Monday Night Combat older $4.99 912 81% 27k $137k (exactly $136,526) Uber Entertainment
Day D: Tower Rush older $14.99 206 74% 6.2k $93k (exactly $92,638) Creobit
Bloodsports.TV older $9.99 255 83% 7.7k $76k (exactly $76,424) Toadman Interactive, Fatshark
TOTALLY BASEBALL older $14.99 149 87% 4.5k $67k (exactly $67,005) ZEVO GAMES
Gnumz: Masters of Defense older $14.99 111 69% 3.3k $50k (exactly $49,917) Creobit
Mind Spheres older $4.99 309 83% 9.3k $46k (exactly $46,257) Microblast Games
Winged Sakura: Mindy's Arc older $9.99 149 79% 4.5k $45k (exactly $44,655) WINGED SAKURA GAMES
KUNKUN Defender 2 $4.99 294 94% 8.8k $44k (exactly $44,012) Seal
Wild Ice $19.99 17 100% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) Journey Bound Games
Gold Defence $9.99 20 65% 600 $6.0k (exactly $5,994) Gamesforgames
Winning Tactics $9.99 14 78% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Gamesforgames
Summoner's Automata $9.99 14 85% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Gamesforgames
Wukong Survivors :Begin $2.99 18 100% 540 $1.6k (exactly $1,615) Seal233
Spin to Survive $2.99 16 93% 480 $1.4k (exactly $1,435) Seal
Warranty Not Included · EA $8.99 3 100% 90 $809 (exactly $809) VRXtra
Tower Defense: Goblin Wars $0.99 4 25% 120 $119 (exactly $119) Yusuf Islam Seyhan, Samet Acar

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.