Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Sports game?

Sports + Aliens

Only 12 developers shipped an Alien Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Disc Frenzy, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $390 in the last 2 years and $390 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 9 developers shipped in the last year and 8 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 69890% on the market, 8 announced, ×0.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Sports + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $390 (exactly $390)
Top 25% $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 5% $2.7k (exactly $2,698)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 40
Announced 8
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 97% positive over 32 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $390, 1 in 4 over $1.3k, 1 in 20 over $2.6k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Distant Space 2 older $0.99 316 88% 9.5k $9.4k (exactly $9,385) PixelMouse
Space Route older $24.99 11 90% 330 $8.2k (exactly $8,247) Space R Studio, Gamesforgames
Golf VS Zombies older $9.99 22 72% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) Sleepwalking Potatoes
Jerry Rice & Nitus' Dog Football older $2.99 64 89% 1.9k $5.7k (exactly $5,741) JUDOBABY INC.
Crazy Pixel Streaker older $4.99 22 63% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) Lubiterum
Disc Frenzy $14.99 6 100% 180 $2.7k (exactly $2,698) SupraOrbital Studios
on Titan $18.99 3 100% 90 $1.7k (exactly $1,709) Aleksandr Akimov
BasCatball Mars: Basketball & Cat older $1.99 28 100% 840 $1.7k (exactly $1,672) Opala Project
Jaxx Blorgin's UFO Jam $4.99 9 100% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) Wax Lion
Aviano older $5.99 6 50% 180 $1.1k (exactly $1,078) Tatti
Savage Arena: Dead Ball Zone $5.99 5 80% 150 $898 (exactly $898) Rage Software, Jordan Freeman Group
Tabletop Baseball $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Dumb Duck Games
OMEXYAN $12.99 1 100% 30 $390 (exactly $390) 2 Crying Attic Games
Cosmic Crossover: Roguelike Basketball $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) EJ Applications
Splatsplasm $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) PRPVFX Ltd.
UFOs On Stream $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Evan Matwijejko
Planet Strike $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) DanboruStudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.