Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death game?

Perma Death

Of 1,008 developers who shipped a Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,684 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×2.2 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×452 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 1,684 games are announced against 597 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 1,684 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,008
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.8k → $1.2k → $1.2k → $1.8k → $1.6k → $748 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,008
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $7.8k (exactly $7,792)
Top 5% $215k (exactly $214,693)
Developers, 2 yr 1,008
Released games 2,801
Announced 1,684
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 642,166 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $7.7k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 477 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,684 games are announced against 597 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Perma Death

165 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Perma Death + Lovecraftian Poor odds $2.2k 22 devs
  2. Procedural Generation + Perma Death Poor odds $2.2k 334 devs
  3. Wargame + Perma Death Poor odds $2.0k 15 devs
  4. Loot + Perma Death Poor odds $2.0k 78 devs
  5. Perma Death + Magic Poor odds $1.9k 85 devs
  6. Character Customization + Perma Death Poor odds $1.9k 81 devs
  7. Perma Death + Military Poor odds $1.9k 23 devs
  8. Perma Death + Board Game Poor odds $1.9k 19 devs
  9. Perma Death + Roguelite Poor odds $1.9k 442 devs
  10. Physics + Perma Death Poor odds $1.9k 80 devs
  11. Open World + Perma Death Poor odds $1.9k 57 devs
  12. Perma Death + Roguelike Poor odds $1.8k 510 devs
  13. Perma Death + Female Protagonist Poor odds $1.8k 71 devs
  14. Vehicular Combat + Perma Death Poor odds $1.8k 13 devs
  15. Strategy + Perma Death Poor odds $1.8k 316 devs
  16. Perma Death + Fantasy Poor odds $1.8k 222 devs
  17. Stealth + Perma Death Poor odds $1.8k 47 devs
  18. Perma Death + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.7k 130 devs
  19. Perma Death + Medieval Poor odds $1.7k 84 devs
  20. Auto Battler + Perma Death Poor odds $1.7k 47 devs
  21. Perma Death + Nature Poor odds $1.7k 35 devs
  22. Looter Shooter + Perma Death Poor odds $1.6k 21 devs
  23. Spectacle fighter + Perma Death Poor odds $1.5k 8 devs
  24. Walking Simulator + Perma Death Poor odds $1.5k 44 devs
  25. Action Roguelike + Perma Death Poor odds $1.5k 349 devs
  26. Inventory Management + Perma Death Poor odds $1.4k 61 devs
  27. Perma Death + Aliens Poor odds $1.4k 28 devs
  28. Perma Death + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.3k 139 devs
  29. Simulation + Perma Death Poor odds $1.3k 135 devs
  30. Real Time Tactics + Perma Death Poor odds $1.3k 26 devs
  31. Perma Death + Twin Stick Shooter Poor odds $1.3k 49 devs
  32. Perma Death + Gambling Poor odds $1.3k 21 devs
  33. Perma Death + Gothic Poor odds $1.3k 18 devs
  34. Exploration + Perma Death Poor odds $1.2k 190 devs
  35. Choices Matter + Perma Death Poor odds $1.2k 129 devs
  36. Perma Death + Choose Your Own Adventure Poor odds $1.2k 25 devs
  37. Grid-Based Movement + Perma Death Poor odds $1.2k 46 devs
  38. Perma Death + Space Poor odds $1.2k 77 devs
  39. Immersive Sim + Perma Death Poor odds $1.2k 32 devs
  40. Investigation + Perma Death Poor odds $1.2k 16 devs
  41. Perma Death + Capitalism Poor odds $1.2k 14 devs
  42. Metroidvania + Perma Death Poor odds $1.2k 11 devs
  43. Perma Death + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $1.2k 61 devs
  44. CRPG + Perma Death Poor odds $1.2k 21 devs
  45. Destruction + Perma Death Poor odds $1.1k 19 devs
  46. Class-Based + Perma Death Poor odds $1.1k 42 devs
  47. Perma Death + Historical Poor odds $1.0k 18 devs
  48. Perma Death + Psychological Horror Poor odds $1.0k 127 devs
  49. Perma Death + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.0k 40 devs
  50. Building + Perma Death Poor odds $987 27 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hades 2020 · $214M Hunt: Showdown 1896 2019 · $192M Lethal Company 2023 · EA · $123M Darkest Dungeon® 2016 · $106M Hades II 2025 · $103M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hades older $24.99 285,748 97% 8.6M $214M (exactly $214,225,276) Supergiant Games
Hunt: Showdown 1896 older $29.99 213,023 74% 6.4M $192M (exactly $191,656,793) Crytek
Lethal Company · EA older $9.99 411,550 97% 12M $123M (exactly $123,341,535) Zeekerss
Darkest Dungeon® older $24.99 140,790 91% 4.2M $106M (exactly $105,550,263) Red Hook Studios
Hades II $29.99 114,419 95% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,942,774) Supergiant Games
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
State of Decay 2: Juggernaut Edition older $29.99 59,156 83% 1.8M $53M (exactly $53,222,653) Undead Labs
My Summer Car $14.99 108,503 94% 3.3M $49M (exactly $48,793,799) Amistech Games
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
My Winter Car · EA $14.99 18,614 94% 558k $8.4M (exactly $8,370,716) Amistech Games
White Knuckle · EA $16.99 13,356 98% 401k $6.8M (exactly $6,807,553) Dark Machine Games
Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days · EA $24.99 9,049 89% 271k $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) PikPok
Until Dawn™ $59.99 3,564 82% 107k $6.4M (exactly $6,414,131) Ballistic Moon
Road to Vostok · EA $19.99 8,646 84% 259k $5.2M (exactly $5,185,006) Road to Vostok Ltd.
Elin · EA $19.99 8,406 93% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) Lafrontier
LOCKDOWN Protocol $9.99 16,605 86% 498k $5.0M (exactly $4,976,518) Mirage Creative Lab

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.