Do I ship it?

Games › Immersive Sim › Immersive Sim + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Perma Death

Of 32 developers who shipped a Perma Death Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 73 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×682 the market median. Revenue is up 90% on the market; 73 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 90% on the market, 73 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.9k → $7.2k → $2.9k → $1.6k → $9.7k → $1.2k → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $478 (exactly $478)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $9.7k (exactly $9,696)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,021,091)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 68
Announced 73
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Perma Death; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Open World, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 20,928 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $9.6k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 73 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

My Winter Car 2025 · EA · $8.4M Day of Dragons 2019 · EA · $3.8M Bootstrap Island 2026 · $1.0M Eldritch 2013 · $764k Uplink 2006 · $637k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
My Winter Car · EA $14.99 18,614 94% 558k $8.4M (exactly $8,370,716) Amistech Games
Day of Dragons · EA older $19.99 6,278 68% 188k $3.8M (exactly $3,764,917) Beawesome Games
Bootstrap Island $24.99 1,362 81% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,021,091) Maru VR
Eldritch older $14.99 1,698 88% 51k $764k (exactly $763,591) Minor Key Games
Uplink older $11.99 1,771 89% 53k $637k (exactly $637,029) Introversion Software
UnReal World older $14.50 1,224 93% 37k $532k (exactly $532,440) Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (… (Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (co-designer))
The Monster Breeder $29.99 272 91% 8.2k $245k (exactly $244,718) Fantasy Creations
A Merchant's Promise · EA $14.99 300 86% 9.0k $135k (exactly $134,910) Game Draft Studio
Street Lords older $14.99 115 57% 3.5k $52k (exactly $51,716) Studio HK
Domestic Dog older $4.99 319 83% 9.6k $48k (exactly $47,754) SD
Runehaven $9.99 119 91% 3.6k $36k (exactly $35,664) Cikoria Studio
Liminal Exit $4.99 91 69% 2.7k $14k (exactly $13,623) LittleRedDread
Backpacker Guild $11.99 27 59% 810 $9.7k (exactly $9,712) RainbowStudio
OVERDOSE $3.99 81 82% 2.4k $9.7k (exactly $9,696) For Fun Games
An Other Golf Game · EA $6.99 46 86% 1.4k $9.6k (exactly $9,646) waxycaps
Dough or Die · EA $7.99 16 100% 480 $3.8k (exactly $3,835) Soundbyte Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.