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Should I ship a Perma Death Wargame?
Wargame + Perma Death
Only 15 developers shipped a Perma Death Wargame in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mage and Monsters II, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×3.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×160 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 26 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.0k (exactly $2,035) |
| Top 25% | $9.0k (exactly $8,994) |
| Top 5% | $100k (exactly $100,328) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 15 |
| Released games | 36 |
| Announced | 26 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Wargame
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Perma Death
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Wargame, Perma Death; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tactical, Turn-Based Combat
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $44.99 or above
- Art
- 8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $44.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 597 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Wargame with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Inventory ManagementFair
- + Local MultiplayerFair
- + NavalFair
- + TabletopFair
- + LogicFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Real-TimePoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + StealthPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
Comparable games
Urtuk: The Desolation 2021 · $1.0M 
Space Crew: Legendary Edition 2020 · $808k 
Broken Lines 2020 · $453k 
Mage and Monsters 2022 · $135k 
Mage and Monsters II 2025 · $100k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Urtuk: The Desolation | older | $13.99 | 2,408 87% | 72k | $1.0M (exactly $1,010,638) | David Kaleta |
| | Space Crew: Legendary Edition | older | $15.99 | 1,684 77% | 51k | $808k (exactly $807,815) | Runner Duck |
| | Broken Lines | older | $24.99 | 604 76% | 18k | $453k (exactly $452,819) | BirdIsland/PortaPlay |
| | Mage and Monsters | older | $4.99 | 903 89% | 27k | $135k (exactly $135,179) | Lasse Zacho Malver |
| | Mage and Monsters II | $8.99 | 372 82% | 11k | $100k (exactly $100,328) | Lasse Zacho Malver | |
 | Linguist FPS - The Language Learning FPS | older | $14.99 | 192 71% | 5.8k | $86k (exactly $86,342) | Rocket Boy Games |
 | Street Lords | older | $14.99 | 115 57% | 3.5k | $52k (exactly $51,716) | Studio HK |
 | BURNED HORIZONS | · EA | $44.99 | 29 34% | 870 | $39k (exactly $39,141) | BURNED HORIZONS STUDIO |
 | Recon Control | older | $9.99 | 96 79% | 2.9k | $29k (exactly $28,771) | Dmitry Kozlov |
 | Dread Admiral | $13.99 | 59 89% | 1.8k | $25k (exactly $24,762) | Tescrin Games | |
 | Rogue Conflict | $14.99 | 20 85% | 600 | $9.0k (exactly $8,994) | Frans Wikman | |
 | Back to Dust - Hold it Together | $6.99 | 17 100% | 510 | $3.6k (exactly $3,565) | KomBits Game Studio | |
 | Night of the Dead Simulator | $7.99 | 12 50% | 360 | $2.9k (exactly $2,876) | Unknown People Lab | |
 | Front Line | $2.00 | 47 100% | 1.4k | $2.8k (exactly $2,820) | D.IKUSHIMA | |
 | Wartheon | $3.99 | 17 94% | 510 | $2.0k (exactly $2,035) | Asilpena Games | |
 | 12 Months: Vietnam | $3.99 | 16 68% | 480 | $1.9k (exactly $1,915) | AlphaSixGames | |
 | HeroIsVeryArrogant | $4.99 | 8 100% | 240 | $1.2k (exactly $1,198) | Wondarabyte |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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