Do I ship it?

Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Perma Death game?

Perma Death + Nature

Of 35 developers who shipped a Nature Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 59 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×3.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×2150 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 59 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 59 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $3.4k → $683 → $1.0k → $2.3k → $18k → $1.7k (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $418 (exactly $418)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Top 25% $9.6k (exactly $9,588)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,021,091)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 87
Announced 59
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Strategy, Action
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 11,242 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $9.5k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 59 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Everything is Crab: The Animal Evolution Roguelite 2026 · $2.1M Shelter 2013 · $1.2M Bootstrap Island 2026 · $1.0M Ravenbound 2023 · $693k Insurmountable 2021 · $624k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Everything is Crab: The Animal Evolution Roguelite $9.99 6,876 76% 206k $2.1M (exactly $2,060,737) Odd Dreams Digital
Shelter older $14.99 2,683 85% 80k $1.2M (exactly $1,206,545) Might and Delight
Bootstrap Island $24.99 1,362 81% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,021,091) Maru VR
Ravenbound older $29.99 770 53% 23k $693k (exactly $692,769) Systemic Reaction™
Insurmountable older $24.99 832 78% 25k $624k (exactly $623,750) ByteRockers' Games
Coal LLC $14.99 1,343 92% 40k $604k (exactly $603,947) Bye Bye Ocean
Primordialis · EA $19.99 974 93% 29k $584k (exactly $584,108) Kyler Natividad, Keith Sammut
UnReal World older $14.50 1,224 93% 37k $532k (exactly $532,440) Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (… (Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (co-designer))
Sipho older $17.99 339 83% 10k $183k (exactly $182,958) All Parts Connected
Hive Blight · EA $12.49 367 94% 11k $138k (exactly $137,515) OptizOnion
Dreadline: Net Quota $5.99 154 68% 4.6k $28k (exactly $27,674) Mana Brigade
Dimwood $14.99 47 100% 1.4k $21k (exactly $21,136) Inkspun LLC
Neolithic Dawn $19.99 30 60% 900 $18k (exactly $17,991) Neolithic LLC
C.A.R.S. - Creating A Ridiculous Shitshow $7.99 40 97% 1.2k $9.6k (exactly $9,588) 3Dads Studios
GUG $5.99 49 34% 1.5k $8.8k (exactly $8,805) Martian Lawyers Club

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.