Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Historical
Should I ship a Historical Perma Death game?
Perma Death + Historical
Only 18 developers shipped a Historical Perma Death game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Long Live Caesar, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $15k, ×24 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 43 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $600 (exactly $600) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) |
| Top 25% | $6.7k (exactly $6,736) |
| Top 5% | $15k (exactly $15,285) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 18 |
| Released games | 56 |
| Announced | 43 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 160% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Perma Death
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Historical
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Perma Death; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Roguelike, Strategy
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 250 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LGBTQ+Strong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + Creature CollectorFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + PiratesFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + Interactive FictionFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Time ManagementFair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + 3D PlatformerFair
Comparable games
Five Nights at Freddy's 2 2014 · $5.7M 
Lost Eidolons 2022 · $1.8M 
Heads Will Roll: Reforged 2023 · $1.2M 
Abandon Ship 2019 · $863k 
Tempest: Pirate Action RPG 2016 · $800k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Five Nights at Freddy's 2 | older | $7.99 | 23,871 93% | 716k | $5.7M (exactly $5,721,879) | Scott Cawthon |
| | Lost Eidolons | older | $34.99 | 1,727 69% | 52k | $1.8M (exactly $1,812,832) | Ocean Drive Studio, Inc. |
| | Heads Will Roll: Reforged | older | $24.99 | 1,642 82% | 49k | $1.2M (exactly $1,231,007) | 1917 Studios |
| | Abandon Ship | older | $24.99 | 1,151 71% | 35k | $863k (exactly $862,905) | Fireblade Software |
| | Tempest: Pirate Action RPG | older | $14.99 | 1,778 69% | 53k | $800k (exactly $799,567) | HeroCraft |
 | A Legionary's Life | older | $7.99 | 2,463 87% | 74k | $590k (exactly $590,381) | Alessandro Roberti |
 | UnReal World | older | $14.50 | 1,224 93% | 37k | $532k (exactly $532,440) | Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (… (Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (co-designer)) |
 | Broken Lines | older | $24.99 | 604 76% | 18k | $453k (exactly $452,819) | BirdIsland/PortaPlay |
 | Okhlos: Omega | older | $12.99 | 633 78% | 19k | $247k (exactly $246,680) | Coffee Powered Machine |
 | BEAST: False Prophet | · EA older | $24.99 | 189 64% | 5.7k | $142k (exactly $141,693) | False Prophet |
 | Long Live Caesar | $9.99 | 51 78% | 1.5k | $15k (exactly $15,285) | Yury Khovansky, Vladislavs Viktorovs | |
 | SOG: Vietnam | $12.99 | 33 93% | 990 | $13k (exactly $12,860) | PigeonMakesGames, Games By Loki | |
 | Millennium Strategy | $14.99 | 21 85% | 630 | $9.4k (exactly $9,444) | MiMo Games | |
 | Tribe Nation | $9.99 | 24 79% | 720 | $7.2k (exactly $7,193) | Random Worlds s.r.o. | |
 | Threads of War | $4.99 | 45 97% | 1.4k | $6.7k (exactly $6,736) | KoS | |
 | Flames of Freedom: 1821 | · EA | $4.99 | 31 80% | 930 | $4.6k (exactly $4,641) | NOUMENON |
 | 12 Months: Vietnam | $3.99 | 16 68% | 480 | $1.9k (exactly $1,915) | AlphaSixGames | |
 | Three Kingdoms Club Manager | $8.99 | 6 66% | 180 | $1.6k (exactly $1,618) | COSO | |
 | Arena Monarchy | · EA | $4.99 | 7 100% | 210 | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) | Kevin Zhang |
 | Rock and Scroll | $1.99 | 16 93% | 480 | $955 (exactly $955) | Fowlplay |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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