Do I ship it?

GamesPerma DeathPerma Death + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Perma Death game?

Perma Death + Military

Of 23 developers who shipped a Military Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $94k, ×151 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 52 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 52 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $150 → $359 → $3.4k → $9.0k → $6.7k → $479 (still earning) → $2.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,915)
Top 25% $30k (exactly $29,985)
Top 5% $95k (exactly $94,753)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 61
Announced 52
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 260% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Perma Death; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Tactical, Character Customization, PvE
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 3,446 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $94k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Marauders · EA older $29.99 13,505 68% 405k $12M (exactly $12,150,448) Small Impact Games
Bomber Crew older $15.99 10,416 88% 312k $5.0M (exactly $4,996,555) Runner Duck
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Sky Rogue older $19.99 1,059 92% 32k $635k (exactly $635,082) Fractal Phase
Fracture Point $19.99 158 81% 4.7k $95k (exactly $94,753) Kyrylo Burlaka
Linguist FPS - The Language Learning FPS older $14.99 192 71% 5.8k $86k (exactly $86,342) Rocket Boy Games
Void Marauders $13.99 106 77% 3.2k $44k (exactly $44,488) Autarca
Trailer Shop Simulator older $4.99 265 73% 8.0k $40k (exactly $39,670) GidAzGames
BURNED HORIZONS · EA $44.99 29 34% 870 $39k (exactly $39,141) BURNED HORIZONS STUDIO
Burkina Faso: Radical Insurgency $19.99 55 58% 1.7k $33k (exactly $32,984) Blackridge Entertainment
Rogue Eclipse $19.99 50 62% 1.5k $30k (exactly $29,985) HUSKRAFTS
SOG: Vietnam $12.99 33 93% 990 $13k (exactly $12,860) PigeonMakesGames, Games By Loki
Rogue Conflict $14.99 20 85% 600 $9.0k (exactly $8,994) Frans Wikman
Tribe Nation $9.99 24 79% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) Random Worlds s.r.o.
Threads of War $4.99 45 97% 1.4k $6.7k (exactly $6,736) KoS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.