Do I ship it?

GamesPerma DeathPerma Death + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Roguelite?

Perma Death + Roguelite

Of 442 developers who shipped a Perma Death Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 821 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×4.0 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×515 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 821 games are announced against 265 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 821 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 442
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.8k → $3.6k → $2.0k → $2.5k → $2.5k → $3.6k → $1.2k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 442
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,884)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,171)
Top 5% $245k (exactly $244,718)
Developers, 2 yr 442
Released games 1,169
Announced 821
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death, Roguelite; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Strategy, Action Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Difficult, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 143,043 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 192 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 821 games are announced against 265 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hades older $24.99 285,748 97% 8.6M $214M (exactly $214,225,276) Supergiant Games
Darkest Dungeon® older $24.99 140,790 91% 4.2M $106M (exactly $105,550,263) Red Hook Studios
Hades II $29.99 114,419 95% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,942,774) Supergiant Games
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
FTL: Faster Than Light older $9.99 62,763 94% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,810,071) Subset Games
Roboquest older $24.99 19,158 95% 575k $14M (exactly $14,362,753) RyseUp Studios
Peglin older $19.99 16,626 83% 499k $10M (exactly $9,970,612) Red Nexus Games Inc.
The Last Spell older $24.99 13,260 91% 398k $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) Ishtar Games
Crab Champions · EA older $9.99 26,546 97% 796k $8.0M (exactly $7,955,836) Noisestorm
SWORN $24.99 3,779 80% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,833,116) Windwalk Games
Void War $19.99 3,653 94% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704) Tundra
Everything is Crab: The Animal Evolution Roguelite $9.99 6,876 76% 206k $2.1M (exactly $2,060,737) Odd Dreams Digital
Aethermancer · EA $25.99 2,585 91% 78k $2.0M (exactly $2,015,524) moi rai games
Pathogenic $9.99 4,145 92% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,256) Aberrant Labs
Dwarves: Glory, Death and Loot $14.99 2,588 82% 78k $1.2M (exactly $1,163,824) Hamma Studios
SpellRogue $19.99 1,566 86% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Guidelight Games
LONESTAR $12.99 2,183 90% 65k $851k (exactly $850,715) Math Tide
Pronoun Palace $19.84 1,249 99% 37k $743k (exactly $743,405) Cadence Petersen, Hazel Fackler

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.