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Should I ship a Choices Matter Perma Death game?
Choices Matter + Perma Death
Of 129 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 277 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×655 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 277 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.2k (exactly $1,206) |
| Top 25% | $15k (exactly $15,095) |
| Top 5% | $311k (exactly $311,192) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 129 |
| Released games | 291 |
| Announced | 277 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Perma Death
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter, Perma Death; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Roguelite, Strategy
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 25,020 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 58 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 277 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
The Quarry 2022 · $29M 
Crab Champions 2023 · EA · $8.0M 
Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days 2025 · EA · $6.8M 
Until Dawn™ 2024 · $6.4M 
Invisible, Inc. 2015 · $3.1M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Quarry | older | $59.99 | 16,127 83% | 484k | $29M (exactly $29,023,762) | Supermassive Games |
| | Crab Champions | · EA older | $9.99 | 26,546 97% | 796k | $8.0M (exactly $7,955,836) | Noisestorm |
| | Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days | · EA | $24.99 | 9,049 89% | 271k | $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) | PikPok |
| | Until Dawn™ | $59.99 | 3,564 82% | 107k | $6.4M (exactly $6,414,131) | Ballistic Moon | |
| | Invisible, Inc. | older | $19.99 | 5,096 91% | 153k | $3.1M (exactly $3,056,071) | Klei Entertainment |
 | Void War | $19.99 | 3,653 94% | 110k | $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704) | Tundra | |
 | Hell Clock | $19.99 | 3,535 82% | 106k | $2.1M (exactly $2,119,940) | Rogue Snail | |
 | Vagante | older | $14.99 | 4,118 90% | 124k | $1.9M (exactly $1,851,865) | Nuke Nine |
 | One Hour One Life | older | $14.99 | 3,988 79% | 120k | $1.8M (exactly $1,793,404) | Jason Rohrer |
 | Ghost Exile | · EA older | $14.99 | 3,686 88% | 111k | $1.7M (exactly $1,657,594) | LostOneTeam |
 | Those Who Rule | $17.99 | 1,116 89% | 33k | $602k (exactly $602,305) | Eldin Turulja | |
 | CRUEL | $9.99 | 1,814 95% | 54k | $544k (exactly $543,656) | James Dornan | |
 | Dunjungle | $14.99 | 692 96% | 21k | $311k (exactly $311,192) | Bruno Bombardi | |
 | PEPPERED: an existential platformer | $14.99 | 603 96% | 18k | $271k (exactly $271,169) | Mostly Games | |
 | Gods of Sand | $9.99 | 720 86% | 22k | $216k (exactly $215,784) | Achenar Studios | |
 | Dawncaster | The RPG Cardventure | $19.99 | 274 81% | 8.2k | $164k (exactly $164,318) | Wanderlost Interactive |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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