Do I ship it?

Games › Class-Based › Class-Based + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Class-Based game?

Class-Based + Perma Death

Of 42 developers who shipped a Perma Death Class-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 104 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×0.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×92 the market median. Revenue is up 100% on the market; 104 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 104 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Class-Based + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.4k → $27k → $1.8k → $1.2k → $779 → $1.2k → $6.0k (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Class-Based + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,077)
Top 25% $9.7k (exactly $9,712)
Top 5% $137k (exactly $137,348)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 102
Announced 104
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Class-Based
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Class-Based, Perma Death; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 2,447 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $9.7k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 104 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Class-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair19 devs · median $6.6k · 22 announced
  2. + Bullet HeavenFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + SupernaturalLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  4. + 2D PlatformerLong shot26 devs · median $539 · 30 announced
  5. + FPSPoor odds22 devs · median $70k · 70 announced
  6. + MMORPGPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  7. + Base BuildingPoor odds18 devs · median $33k · 44 announced
  8. + WarPoor odds17 devs · median $32k · 59 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds16 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  10. + MilitaryPoor odds17 devs · median $13k · 42 announced
  11. + Third-Person ShooterPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  12. + WargamePoor odds14 devs · median $9.4k · 28 announced

All 111 pairs on the Class-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Deadlink 2023 · $2.2M SYNTHETIK 2 2021 · EA · $1.9M Vagante 2018 · $1.9M Immortal Redneck 2017 · $1.3M Dice Gambit 2025 · $810k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deadlink older $24.99 2,871 90% 86k $2.2M (exactly $2,152,389) Gruby Entertainment
SYNTHETIK 2 · EA older $19.99 3,202 81% 96k $1.9M (exactly $1,920,239) Flow Fire Games
Vagante older $14.99 4,118 90% 124k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,865) Nuke Nine
Immortal Redneck older $19.95 2,211 90% 66k $1.3M (exactly $1,323,284) Crema
Dice Gambit $24.99 1,080 87% 32k $810k (exactly $809,676) Chromatic Ink
Goblin Stone older $24.99 735 52% 22k $551k (exactly $551,030) Orc Chop Games
Dawncaster | The RPG Cardventure $19.99 274 81% 8.2k $164k (exactly $164,318) Wanderlost Interactive
Spin Hero $7.99 573 73% 17k $137k (exactly $137,348) Sphere Studios
Black Legend older $19.99 172 62% 5.2k $103k (exactly $103,148) Warcave
Quest of Dungeons older $4.99 478 78% 14k $72k (exactly $71,557) David Amador
Trials of Valor $18.99 100 95% 3.0k $57k (exactly $56,970) Armored Goblin
Nullpoint Protocol $14.99 62 61% 1.9k $28k (exactly $27,881) Everbloom Games
Gah! $7.99 116 87% 3.5k $28k (exactly $27,805) Jasio Games
Shadowed: The Demon Castle of Ooe $15.99 56 92% 1.7k $27k (exactly $26,863) Lab Rabbit Games ltd
Nevergrind $12.99 60 68% 1.8k $23k (exactly $23,382) Neverworks Games
Primarch · EA $11.99 40 85% 1.2k $14k (exactly $14,388) Dale Turner
Doomfields $4.99 86 82% 2.6k $13k (exactly $12,874) KJGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.