Do I ship it?

Games › CRPG › CRPG + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death CRPG?

CRPG + Perma Death

Of 21 developers who shipped a Perma Death CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×146 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 31 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 31 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $1.2k → $2.5k → $450 → $21k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,166)
Top 25% $9.4k (exactly $9,353)
Top 5% $219k (exactly $219,118)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 54
Announced 31
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG, Perma Death; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Party-Based RPG, Roguelike
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Isometric, 2D, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 2,063 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $9.3k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Darkest Dungeon® II 2023 · $29M Blackthorn Arena 2020 · $2.6M Lost Eidolons 2022 · $1.8M Tempest: Pirate Action RPG 2016 · $800k Those Who Rule 2025 · $602k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Blackthorn Arena older $24.99 3,477 69% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,606,707) PersonaeGame Studio
Lost Eidolons older $34.99 1,727 69% 52k $1.8M (exactly $1,812,832) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Tempest: Pirate Action RPG older $14.99 1,778 69% 53k $800k (exactly $799,567) HeroCraft
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
ADOM (Ancient Domains Of Mystery) older $14.99 1,253 86% 38k $563k (exactly $563,474) Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Zeno R… (Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Zeno Rogue, Krzysztof Dycha, Lucas Dieguez)
Escape The Mad Empire · EA $17.99 406 88% 12k $219k (exactly $219,118) XperimentalZ Games
Unexplored 2: The Wayfarer's Legacy older $19.99 269 75% 8.1k $161k (exactly $161,319) Ludomotion
硬币与仙人掌 (Coins & Wishpalm) $13.99 343 77% 10k $144k (exactly $143,957) Moshow Games
Golden Krone Hotel older $9.99 313 94% 9.4k $94k (exactly $93,806) Vulgat
RLLL: Tower of Choices $9.99 77 72% 2.3k $23k (exactly $23,077) Team5D
DarkStone Restoration · EA $10.99 63 96% 1.9k $21k (exactly $20,771) Paul Cuisset
Phantom Tower · EA $12.99 24 75% 720 $9.4k (exactly $9,353) Horien Studio
Landonia · EA $4.99 17 94% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Landonia RPG
Throne Requiem $19.99 4 25% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) Michael Richard Lannon
Album Corvus $12.99 5 80% 150 $1.9k (exactly $1,948) Devil's Dozen Games
Dragonwake $7.99 8 62% 240 $1.9k (exactly $1,918) Mr Crops

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.