Do I ship it?

GamesBuildingBuilding + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Building Perma Death game?

Building + Perma Death

Of 27 developers who shipped a Building Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $990, ×1.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $580k, ×930 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 52 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 52 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $2.0k → $48k → $839 → $1.6k → $150 → $1.6k (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $987 (exactly $987)
Top 25% $6.6k (exactly $6,593)
Top 5% $584k (exactly $584,108)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 73
Announced 52
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Building, Perma Death; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Roguelite, Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 109,674 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $990, 1 in 4 over $6.5k, 1 in 20 over $580k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
My Summer Car $14.99 108,503 94% 3.3M $49M (exactly $48,793,799) Amistech Games
Blackthorn Arena older $24.99 3,477 69% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,606,707) PersonaeGame Studio
One Hour One Life older $14.99 3,988 79% 120k $1.8M (exactly $1,793,404) Jason Rohrer
Cluckmech Oasis older $9.99 3,077 87% 92k $922k (exactly $922,177) BlackLight
Primordialis · EA $19.99 974 93% 29k $584k (exactly $584,108) Kyler Natividad, Keith Sammut
UnReal World older $14.50 1,224 93% 37k $532k (exactly $532,440) Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (… (Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (co-designer))
Sipho older $17.99 339 83% 10k $183k (exactly $182,958) All Parts Connected
Exodus Borealis older $19.99 243 91% 7.3k $146k (exactly $145,727) Smug Marmot Studios
The Banished Vault older $24.99 189 78% 5.7k $142k (exactly $141,693) Lunar Division
Space Scavenger older $12.99 289 86% 8.7k $113k (exactly $112,623) Red Cabin Games
Don't Freeze: A Winter Card Survival · EA $17.99 31 74% 930 $17k (exactly $16,731) YOLO35GAMES
Cribbish $4.99 65 81% 2.0k $9.7k (exactly $9,730) Fence Post Games
Hand of Hexes $11.99 26 96% 780 $9.4k (exactly $9,352) emmdieh
One King Is Enough $10.99 27 77% 810 $8.9k (exactly $8,902) INVISIBLE GAMES
Rogue Night $9.99 22 63% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) Grey November Games
Galdia · EA $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Shergaze Castle
Death Nomad $9.99 6 50% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Cosmic Noise
BattleshipCrafting $5.99 10 100% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) 洛米条

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.