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Should I ship a Physics Perma Death game?
Physics + Perma Death
Of 80 developers who shipped a Physics Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 122 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×446 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 122 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.9k (exactly $1,884) |
| Top 25% | $13k (exactly $13,423) |
| Top 5% | $280k (exactly $280,388) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 80 |
| Released games | 177 |
| Announced | 122 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Physics
- effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
- Perma Death
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics, Perma Death; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Exploration
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 96% positive over 345,437 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 122 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
R.E.P.O. 2025 · EA · $102M 
Noita 2020 · $49M 
Peglin 2024 · $10M 
Bootstrap Island 2026 · $1.0M 
ALTF4 2021 · $848k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | R.E.P.O. | · EA | $9.99 | 341,004 96% | 10M | $102M (exactly $102,198,899) | semiwork |
| | Noita | older | $19.99 | 81,149 95% | 2.4M | $49M (exactly $48,665,055) | Nolla Games |
| | Peglin | older | $19.99 | 16,626 83% | 499k | $10M (exactly $9,970,612) | Red Nexus Games Inc. |
| | Bootstrap Island | $24.99 | 1,362 81% | 41k | $1.0M (exactly $1,021,091) | Maru VR | |
| | ALTF4 | older | $2.99 | 9,452 80% | 284k | $848k (exactly $847,844) | PUMPKIM |
 | Primordialis | · EA | $19.99 | 974 93% | 29k | $584k (exactly $584,108) | Kyler Natividad, Keith Sammut |
 | Bad Rats: the Rats' Revenge | older | $1.99 | 7,062 77% | 212k | $422k (exactly $421,601) | Invent4 Entertainment |
 | Exo Rally Championship | $24.99 | 374 90% | 11k | $280k (exactly $280,388) | Exbleative | |
 | Catacomb Kids | · EA older | $15.99 | 534 85% | 16k | $256k (exactly $256,160) | FourbitFriday |
 | Kinny and the Cosmic Cauldron | $12.99 | 563 85% | 17k | $219k (exactly $219,401) | Kinnymoms | |
 | A Merchant's Promise | · EA | $14.99 | 300 86% | 9.0k | $135k (exactly $134,910) | Game Draft Studio |
 | Dig, Dig, Die | $7.99 | 321 64% | 9.6k | $77k (exactly $76,944) | Alice Games | |
 | Hangtime! | $9.99 | 250 77% | 7.5k | $75k (exactly $74,925) | Leo Langlois | |
 | Deadly Delivery | $9.99 | 152 89% | 4.6k | $46k (exactly $45,554) | Flat Head Studio | |
 | Only Way is Down | $9.99 | 137 63% | 4.1k | $41k (exactly $41,059) | Jilted Generation Productions |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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