Do I ship it?

GamesPerma DeathPerma Death + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Perma Death game?

Perma Death + Capitalism

Only 14 developers shipped a Capitalist Perma Death game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Coal LLC, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $600k, ×1271 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 25 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 25 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Perma Death + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,294)
Top 5% $604k (exactly $603,947)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 28
Announced 25
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Perma Death
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 1,622 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $600k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Coal LLC $14.99 1,343 92% 40k $604k (exactly $603,947) Bye Bye Ocean
Domestic Dog older $4.99 319 83% 9.6k $48k (exactly $47,754) SD
SNAKE FARM older $2.99 392 94% 12k $35k (exactly $35,162) HEATHER FLOWERS
Cocaine Dealer · EA older $3.99 109 80% 3.3k $13k (exactly $13,047) Stone/Spark Games
BloodDome99 $4.99 79 94% 2.4k $12k (exactly $11,826) Halftone Gaming
Shop-Like - The Rogue-Like Item Shop Experience older $7.99 37 75% 1.1k $8.9k (exactly $8,869) Rand.Exe Studios
One More 6ix $1.99 147 99% 4.4k $8.8k (exactly $8,776) Crazish Games
Torment Hexus · EA $9.99 21 100% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) TMA Games LLC
Cubic Currency older $5.99 29 89% 870 $5.2k (exactly $5,211) PJ Rivas, Daniel Onstott, Hannah Marqua… (PJ Rivas, Daniel Onstott, Hannah Marquardt, Mitchell Dixon)
Planet Hoarders · EA $7.99 10 60% 300 $2.4k (exactly $2,397) Imago Games
GG Life · EA $14.99 4 50% 120 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) AfterGlow Games
The King of Wall Street $4.99 8 100% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Yogo Studio
Blosharper: Battle of Blossoms · EA $4.99 7 71% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Joon x Jin Works
Second Chance at a Billion $10.00 2 50% 60 $600 (exactly $600) ElderYew
Star Scavenger $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Nathaniel Jones

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.