Do I ship it?

GamesPerma DeathPerma Death + Cyberpunk

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cyberpunk Perma Death game?

Perma Death + Cyberpunk

Of 40 developers who shipped a Cyberpunk Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 66 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $730k, ×1175 the market median. Revenue is up 1050% on the market; 66 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 1050% on the market, 66 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Cyberpunk
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $337k → $1.8k → $1.0k → $300 → $2.3k → $1.6k (still earning) → $5.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Cyberpunk: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,015)
Top 25% $5.8k (exactly $5,755)
Top 5% $738k (exactly $737,705)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 111
Announced 66
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1050% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Cyberpunk
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Perma Death; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 5,616 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $5.7k, 1 in 20 over $730k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 66 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Invisible, Inc. older $19.99 5,096 91% 153k $3.1M (exactly $3,056,071) Klei Entertainment
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Deadlink older $24.99 2,871 90% 86k $2.2M (exactly $2,152,389) Gruby Entertainment
Oblivion Override older $17.99 1,692 90% 51k $913k (exactly $913,172) Humble Mill
Battle Shapers $24.99 984 80% 30k $738k (exactly $737,705) Metric Empire
Uplink older $11.99 1,771 89% 53k $637k (exactly $637,029) Introversion Software
Receiver older $4.99 2,603 85% 78k $390k (exactly $389,669) Wolfire Games
Doomsday Hunters older $15.99 703 89% 21k $337k (exactly $337,229) Moregames
Ascend to ZERO $11.99 867 82% 26k $312k (exactly $311,860) Flyway Games, Inc.
Orbital Bullet – The 360° Rogue-lite older $16.99 601 82% 18k $306k (exactly $306,330) SmokeStab
WAR RATS: The Rat em Up $11.99 382 95% 11k $137k (exactly $137,405) wootusart Industries
868-BACK $19.99 122 98% 3.7k $73k (exactly $73,163) Michael Brough
Corebreaker · EA $7.99 161 92% 4.8k $39k (exactly $38,592) aQuadiun
Gunstoppable $12.49 58 81% 1.7k $22k (exactly $21,733) CAGE Studios
BloodDome99 $4.99 79 94% 2.4k $12k (exactly $11,826) Halftone Gaming
Torment Hexus · EA $9.99 21 100% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) TMA Games LLC
Amy Hates Robots $11.99 16 100% 480 $5.8k (exactly $5,755) Rogue Robin Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.