Do I ship it?

Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Perma Death game?

Perma Death + Aliens

Of 28 developers who shipped an Alien Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 65 more are announced, ×5.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×374 the market median. Revenue is up 145% on the market; 65 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 145% on the market, 65 announced, ×5.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $629 → $48k → $1.2k → $1.0k → $657 → $3.1k → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,252)
Top 5% $178k (exactly $177,722)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 103
Announced 65
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 145% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Perma Death; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Procedural Generation, Action, Online Co-Op
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 16,809 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 9 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 65 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Lethal Company 2023 · EA · $123M XCOM: Enemy Unknown 2012 · $18M Age of Wonders: Planetfall 2019 · $4.3M Phoenix Point 2020 · $4.0M Nuclear Nightmare 2024 · EA · $3.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lethal Company · EA older $9.99 411,550 97% 12M $123M (exactly $123,341,535) Zeekerss
XCOM: Enemy Unknown older $14.99 40,345 93% 1.2M $18M (exactly $18,143,146) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Linux)
Age of Wonders: Planetfall older $29.99 4,758 80% 143k $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) Triumph Studios
Phoenix Point older $24.99 5,375 73% 161k $4.0M (exactly $4,029,637) Snapshot Games Inc.
Nuclear Nightmare · EA $6.99 15,403 81% 462k $3.2M (exactly $3,230,009) BG Productions
Sword of the Stars: The Pit older $9.99 1,132 83% 34k $339k (exactly $339,260) Kerberos Productions
Templar Battleforce older $9.99 931 92% 28k $279k (exactly $279,021) Trese Brothers
UNDERWARD $9.99 593 73% 18k $178k (exactly $177,722) INTENSE
Xenopurge $12.49 419 84% 13k $157k (exactly $156,999) Traptics
The Banished Vault older $24.99 189 78% 5.7k $142k (exactly $141,693) Lunar Division
Void Marauders $13.99 106 77% 3.2k $44k (exactly $44,488) Autarca
Cowboy 3030 $14.99 96 87% 2.9k $43k (exactly $43,171) Soy Boy Games
Son and Bone $29.99 23 56% 690 $21k (exactly $20,693) TeamKill Media
outpost4 $3.99 94 72% 2.8k $11k (exactly $11,252) BananaDogGames
Cosmic Carnage $4.49 37 94% 1.1k $5.0k (exactly $4,984) LionSword
Alone in the Stars: Survivor $6.99 23 86% 690 $4.8k (exactly $4,823) J6 Games
Engine Eternal $9.99 15 93% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Absolutely Cookage

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.