Do I ship it?

GamesGrid-Based MovementGrid-Based Movement + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Grid-Based Movement Perma Death game?

Grid-Based Movement + Perma Death

Of 46 developers who shipped a Grid-Based Movement Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 84 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×218 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 84 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 84 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grid-Based Movement + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.1k → $8.1k → $20k → $599 → $4.2k → $5.4k → $899 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grid-Based Movement + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $8.1k (exactly $8,092)
Top 5% $103k (exactly $103,431)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 125
Announced 84
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grid-Based Movement
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Grid-Based Movement, Perma Death; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Strategy, RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 2,713 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $8.0k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 84 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grid-Based Movement with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + HistoricalFair22 devs · median $3.0k · 30 announced
  2. + EconomyFair20 devs · median $1.2k · 29 announced
  3. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $959 · 26 announced
  4. + MiningFair12 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair17 devs · median $809 · 17 announced
  6. + BuildingFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  7. + HackingFair14 devs · median $719 · 11 announced
  8. + SokobanFair143 devs · median $657 · 135 announced
  9. + ProgrammingFair23 devs · median $599 · 24 announced
  10. + DogsFair14 devs · median $599 · 7 announced
  11. + PlatformerFair23 devs · median $539 · 18 announced
  12. + Puzzle PlatformerFair62 devs · median $449 · 56 announced

All 126 pairs on the Grid-Based Movement page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
NEO Scavenger older $14.99 4,437 89% 133k $2.0M (exactly $1,995,319) Blue Bottle Games
Jupiter Hell older $24.99 1,795 91% 54k $1.3M (exactly $1,345,712) ChaosForge
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
ADOM (Ancient Domains Of Mystery) older $14.99 1,253 86% 38k $563k (exactly $563,474) Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Zeno R… (Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Zeno Rogue, Krzysztof Dycha, Lucas Dieguez)
Shovel Knight Pocket Dungeon older $19.99 518 91% 16k $311k (exactly $310,645) VINE, Yacht Club Games
House of Necrosis $11.99 581 94% 17k $209k (exactly $208,986) Warkus
For The Warp older $14.99 434 72% 13k $195k (exactly $195,170) Massive Galaxy Studios
Sproggiwood older $14.99 326 79% 9.8k $147k (exactly $146,602) Freehold Games
Jupiter Hell Classic · EA $14.99 230 95% 6.9k $103k (exactly $103,431) ChaosForge
Slot & Dungeons $8.99 304 83% 9.1k $82k (exactly $81,989) MUC GAMES
Lost In The Open · EA $15.99 160 61% 4.8k $77k (exactly $76,752) Black Voyage Games
Shuffle Tactics $14.99 95 70% 2.9k $43k (exactly $42,722) Club Sandwich
Shadowed: The Demon Castle of Ooe $15.99 56 92% 1.7k $27k (exactly $26,863) Lab Rabbit Games ltd
Maze Keeper $8.99 84 47% 2.5k $23k (exactly $22,655) Spaceward Games
Once a Pawn a King $11.99 54 55% 1.6k $19k (exactly $19,424) Clover Bite
SOG: Vietnam $12.99 33 93% 990 $13k (exactly $12,860) PigeonMakesGames, Games By Loki

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.