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Should I ship a Perma Death Metroidvania?
Metroidvania + Perma Death
Only 11 developers shipped a Perma Death Metroidvania in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Dunjungle, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×655 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 12 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $210 (exactly $210) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.2k (exactly $1,168) |
| Top 25% | $35k (exactly $35,251) |
| Top 5% | $311k (exactly $311,192) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 11 |
| Released games | 30 |
| Announced | 12 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Metroidvania
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Perma Death
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Metroidvania, Perma Death
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 9 games average 94% positive over 941 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Metroidvania with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + ParkourPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
- + SimulationPoor odds
- + LovecraftianPoor odds
- + CollectathonPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Survival HorrorPoor odds
- + Souls-likePoor odds
- + VampiresPoor odds
- + Inventory ManagementPoor odds
- + JRPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Vagante 2018 · $1.9M 
ScourgeBringer 2020 · $1.3M 
Tower Hunter: Erza's Trial 2019 · $1.0M 
Dunjungle 2025 · $311k 
INFERNIUM 2018 · $150k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Vagante | older | $14.99 | 4,118 90% | 124k | $1.9M (exactly $1,851,865) | Nuke Nine |
| | ScourgeBringer | older | $16.99 | 2,642 87% | 79k | $1.3M (exactly $1,346,627) | Flying Oak Games, E-Studio |
| | Tower Hunter: Erza's Trial | older | $17.99 | 1,852 70% | 56k | $1.0M (exactly $999,524) | IceSitruuna |
| | Dunjungle | $14.99 | 692 96% | 21k | $311k (exactly $311,192) | Bruno Bombardi | |
| | INFERNIUM | older | $29.99 | 167 64% | 5.0k | $150k (exactly $150,250) | Carlos Coronado |
 | OVERWHELM | older | $9.99 | 216 84% | 6.5k | $65k (exactly $64,735) | Ruari O'Sullivan |
 | 99 Levels To Hell | older | $4.99 | 336 58% | 10k | $50k (exactly $50,299) | Zaxis Games, B-evil |
 | Aura of Worlds | $14.99 | 101 96% | 3.0k | $45k (exactly $45,420) | Cognitive Forge | |
 | An Amazing Wizard | · EA | $11.99 | 98 83% | 2.9k | $35k (exactly $35,251) | Tiny Goblins |
 | Rusty Rangers | $14.99 | 27 88% | 810 | $12k (exactly $12,142) | Fantastica! | |
 | Just a Little Longer | $7.99 | 7 71% | 210 | $1.7k (exactly $1,678) | Scott Jund | |
 | Diggy Diggy Mole | $9.73 | 4 100% | 120 | $1.2k (exactly $1,168) | Novasplore Games | |
 | Mishaka Ubivaka | $2.99 | 10 100% | 300 | $897 (exactly $897) | Low Res | |
 | Chinook | $6.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $210 (exactly $210) | Andrew Tate, Luca Viarengo, Hayden Garn… (Andrew Tate, Luca Viarengo, Hayden Garner) | |
 | Maiden | $4.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $150 (exactly $150) | DIRECTOR'S CUT | |
 | cultivation of the strong | $24.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | PengStudio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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