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Should I ship a Perma Death Choose Your Own Adventure game?
Perma Death + Choose Your Own Adventure
Of 25 developers who shipped a Perma Death Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 54 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $76k, ×161 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 54 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.2k (exactly $1,206) |
| Top 25% | $3.6k (exactly $3,588) |
| Top 5% | $76k (exactly $76,449) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 25 |
| Released games | 75 |
| Announced | 54 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 155% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Perma Death
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Perma Death, Choose Your Own Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, Adventure, Multiple Endings
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, Dark
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 4,475 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 54 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Perma Death with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LGBTQ+Strong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + Creature CollectorFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + PiratesFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + Interactive FictionFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Time ManagementFair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + 3D PlatformerFair
Comparable games
FTL: Faster Than Light 2012 · $19M 
Until Dawn™ 2024 · $6.4M 
轮回修仙路 2023 · $1.5M 
G.O.P.O.T.A 2023 · $1.3M 
Heads Will Roll: Reforged 2023 · $1.2M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | FTL: Faster Than Light | older | $9.99 | 62,763 94% | 1.9M | $19M (exactly $18,810,071) | Subset Games |
| | Until Dawn™ | $59.99 | 3,564 82% | 107k | $6.4M (exactly $6,414,131) | Ballistic Moon | |
| | 轮回修仙路 | older | $16.99 | 2,945 82% | 88k | $1.5M (exactly $1,501,066) | 烟水寒工作室 |
| | G.O.P.O.T.A | older | $29.99 | 1,493 81% | 45k | $1.3M (exactly $1,343,252) | VD Games, PropilGames |
| | Heads Will Roll: Reforged | older | $24.99 | 1,642 82% | 49k | $1.2M (exactly $1,231,007) | 1917 Studios |
 | Abandon Ship | older | $24.99 | 1,151 71% | 35k | $863k (exactly $862,905) | Fireblade Software |
 | ALTF4 | older | $2.99 | 9,452 80% | 284k | $848k (exactly $847,844) | PUMPKIM |
 | Spirit Realm | · EA older | $18.18 | 1,379 76% | 41k | $752k (exactly $752,107) | 深圳市灵境互娱科技有限公司 |
 | Trigon: Space Story | older | $19.99 | 1,247 67% | 37k | $748k (exactly $747,826) | Sernur.tech |
 | Majotori | older | $5.99 | 1,880 96% | 56k | $338k (exactly $337,836) | Majorariatto |
 | Spear Song | · EA | $14.99 | 170 88% | 5.1k | $76k (exactly $76,449) | Divovision Games |
 | RLLL: Tower of Choices | $9.99 | 77 72% | 2.3k | $23k (exactly $23,077) | Team5D | |
 | Little Girl On Earth Asking Why She Asking Why | $0.99 | 525 93% | 16k | $16k (exactly $15,592) | senpi, Nolly | |
 | Come in | $3.99 | 67 70% | 2.0k | $8.0k (exactly $8,020) | TEStudio | |
 | Backrooms: Partygoers | $11.99 | 11 90% | 330 | $4.0k (exactly $3,957) | Mascot Bro Studio | |
 | Loop//Error | $2.99 | 40 95% | 1.2k | $3.6k (exactly $3,588) | Koro Pixel Studio | |
 | Throne Requiem | $19.99 | 4 25% | 120 | $2.4k (exactly $2,399) | Michael Richard Lannon | |
 | Fortiori | $8.40 | 9 100% | 270 | $2.3k (exactly $2,268) | 79GAMES | |
 | The Last Road | $8.99 | 8 100% | 240 | $2.2k (exactly $2,158) | Crow Station Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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