Do I ship it?

GamesAction RoguelikeAction Roguelike + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Action Roguelike?

Action Roguelike + Perma Death

Of 349 developers who shipped a Perma Death Action Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 633 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×3.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×327 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 633 games are announced against 204 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 633 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action Roguelike + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 349
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.4k → $2.7k → $1.8k → $1.8k → $1.5k → $2.7k → $1.2k (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action Roguelike + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 349
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,470)
Top 25% $7.8k (exactly $7,821)
Top 5% $155k (exactly $155,322)
Developers, 2 yr 349
Released games 927
Announced 633
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Action Roguelike, Perma Death; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 477,570 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $7.8k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 160 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 633 games are announced against 204 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action Roguelike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 17 announced
  2. + Creature CollectorFair39 devs · median $1.8k · 54 announced
  3. + SportsFair41 devs · median $1.6k · 39 announced
  4. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + VampiresFair55 devs · median $1.3k · 52 announced
  6. + IdlerFair44 devs · median $1.0k · 55 announced
  7. + DogsFair19 devs · median $899 · 18 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair36 devs · median $629 · 38 announced
  9. + FaithFair16 devs · median $449 · 21 announced
  10. + Character Action GamePoor odds9 devs · median $20k · 40 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $12k · 14 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds44 devs · median $12k · 85 announced

All 205 pairs on the Action Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hades older $24.99 285,748 97% 8.6M $214M (exactly $214,225,276) Supergiant Games
Hades II $29.99 114,419 95% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,942,774) Supergiant Games
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
Roboquest older $24.99 19,158 95% 575k $14M (exactly $14,362,753) RyseUp Studios
Spelunky 2 older $19.99 19,736 93% 592k $12M (exactly $11,835,679) Mossmouth, BlitWorks
Crab Champions · EA older $9.99 26,546 97% 796k $8.0M (exactly $7,955,836) Noisestorm
The Binding of Isaac older $4.99 49,208 94% 1.5M $7.4M (exactly $7,366,438) Edmund McMillen, Florian Himsl
Spelunky older $14.99 14,676 92% 440k $6.6M (exactly $6,599,797) Mossmouth
Risk of Rain (2013) older $9.99 20,768 93% 623k $6.2M (exactly $6,224,170) Hopoo Games
SWORN $24.99 3,779 80% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,833,116) Windwalk Games
Hell Clock $19.99 3,535 82% 106k $2.1M (exactly $2,119,940) Rogue Snail
Everything is Crab: The Animal Evolution Roguelite $9.99 6,876 76% 206k $2.1M (exactly $2,060,737) Odd Dreams Digital
Pathogenic $9.99 4,145 92% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,256) Aberrant Labs
Battle Shapers $24.99 984 80% 30k $738k (exactly $737,705) Metric Empire
Primordialis · EA $19.99 974 93% 29k $584k (exactly $584,108) Kyler Natividad, Keith Sammut
LET IT DIE: INFERNO $24.99 774 52% 23k $580k (exactly $580,268) SUPERTRICK GAMES, Inc.
ODDCORE · EA $12.99 1,080 96% 32k $421k (exactly $420,876) ODDCORP

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.