Do I ship it?

GamesPerma DeathPerma Death + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Perma Death game?

Perma Death + Psychological Horror

Of 127 developers who shipped a Psychological-Horror Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 159 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×2.1 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×709 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 159 games are announced against 74 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 159 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 127
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $629 → $2.9k → $4.5k → $3.4k → $2.6k → $1.3k → $599 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 127
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,015)
Top 25% $6.0k (exactly $5,988)
Top 5% $337k (exactly $336,863)
Developers, 2 yr 127
Released games 263
Announced 159
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Survival Horror
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 156,890 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $5.9k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 62 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 159 games are announced against 74 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lethal Company · EA older $9.99 411,550 97% 12M $123M (exactly $123,341,535) Zeekerss
My Summer Car $14.99 108,503 94% 3.3M $49M (exactly $48,793,799) Amistech Games
The Quarry older $59.99 16,127 83% 484k $29M (exactly $29,023,762) Supermassive Games
My Winter Car · EA $14.99 18,614 94% 558k $8.4M (exactly $8,370,716) Amistech Games
Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days · EA $24.99 9,049 89% 271k $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) PikPok
Five Nights at Freddy's 2 older $7.99 23,871 93% 716k $5.7M (exactly $5,721,879) Scott Cawthon
Nuclear Nightmare · EA $6.99 15,403 81% 462k $3.2M (exactly $3,230,009) BG Productions
Card Survival: Tropical Island older $24.99 2,962 94% 89k $2.2M (exactly $2,220,611) WinterSpring Games
Monstrum older $17.99 3,155 91% 95k $1.7M (exactly $1,702,753) Team Junkfish
Ghost Exile · EA older $14.99 3,686 88% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,657,594) LostOneTeam
Pronoun Palace $19.84 1,249 99% 37k $743k (exactly $743,405) Cadence Petersen, Hazel Fackler
Welcome to the Game III $19.99 648 78% 19k $389k (exactly $388,606) Reflect Studios
Paranoia Place: Escape Together $7.99 1,555 87% 47k $373k (exactly $372,734) Bloody Pixel Games
SILENT BREATH $9.99 1,124 67% 34k $337k (exactly $336,863) EXODIAC STUDIOS
MOLDRISE $11.99 486 96% 15k $175k (exactly $174,814) Raffaele Picca
Bendy: Lone Wolf $19.99 259 77% 7.8k $155k (exactly $155,322) Joey Drew Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.