Do I ship it?

Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Perma Death game?

Perma Death + Magic

Of 85 developers who shipped a Magic Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 198 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×4.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×283 the market median. Revenue is up 190% on the market; 198 games are announced against 56 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 190% on the market, 198 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 85
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $356 → $2.5k → $599 → $3.1k → $1.7k → $1.7k (still earning) → $4.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 85
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,948)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,086)
Top 5% $135k (exactly $134,595)
Developers, 2 yr 85
Released games 230
Announced 198
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 190% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Perma Death; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, RPG, Roguelite
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 6,875 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 198 games are announced against 56 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Astral Ascent 2023 · $4.1M Crown Trick 2020 · $2.7M Ziggurat 2014 · $1.3M Dwarves: Glory, Death and Loot 2026 · $1.2M Ziggurat 2 2021 · $969k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Astral Ascent older $24.99 5,408 94% 162k $4.1M (exactly $4,054,378) Hibernian Workshop
Crown Trick older $19.99 4,509 85% 135k $2.7M (exactly $2,704,047) NEXT Studios
Ziggurat older $14.99 2,835 86% 85k $1.3M (exactly $1,274,900) Milkstone Studios
Dwarves: Glory, Death and Loot $14.99 2,588 82% 78k $1.2M (exactly $1,163,824) Hamma Studios
Ziggurat 2 older $24.99 1,292 90% 39k $969k (exactly $968,612) Milkstone Studios
Ancient Dungeon · EA older $19.99 1,608 95% 48k $964k (exactly $964,318) Eric Thullen
SpellRogue $19.99 1,566 86% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Guidelight Games
Ravenbound older $29.99 770 53% 23k $693k (exactly $692,769) Systemic Reaction™
Slice & Dice older $8.99 2,484 96% 75k $670k (exactly $669,935) Tann
Dandy Ace older $19.99 1,052 87% 32k $631k (exactly $630,884) Mad Mimic
Bloodgrounds $19.99 561 77% 17k $336k (exactly $336,432) Exordium Games
Astral Throne $19.99 270 80% 8.1k $162k (exactly $161,919) Zero Sun Games
Abandoned Archive $5.99 749 93% 22k $135k (exactly $134,595) Vedal
Mage and Monsters II $8.99 372 82% 11k $100k (exactly $100,328) Lasse Zacho Malver
Slot & Dungeons $8.99 304 83% 9.1k $82k (exactly $81,989) MUC GAMES
Lost For Swords $9.99 248 89% 7.4k $74k (exactly $74,326) MaxBytes
Runehaven $9.99 119 91% 3.6k $36k (exactly $35,664) Cikoria Studio
An Amazing Wizard · EA $11.99 98 83% 2.9k $35k (exactly $35,251) Tiny Goblins

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.