Do I ship it?

GamesPerma DeathPerma Death + Gothic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gothic Perma Death game?

Perma Death + Gothic

Only 18 developers shipped a Gothic Perma Death game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Void War, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×4612 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 36 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 36 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Gothic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $142k → $12k → $3.0k → $2.7k → $1.1k → $5.0k (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Gothic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,259)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,086)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 46
Announced 36
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Gothic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Perma Death; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Action RPG, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2D, Isometric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 4,554 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Darkest Dungeon® older $24.99 140,790 91% 4.2M $106M (exactly $105,550,263) Red Hook Studios
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Othercide older $29.99 4,516 82% 135k $4.1M (exactly $4,063,045) Lightbulb Crew
Void War $19.99 3,653 94% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704) Tundra
Corpse Keeper older $19.99 1,126 76% 34k $675k (exactly $675,262) Melancholia Studio
Netherworld Covenant $19.99 597 78% 18k $358k (exactly $358,021) MadGoat Game Studio
Loot River older $24.99 355 69% 11k $266k (exactly $266,144) straka.studio
Our Darker Purpose older $14.99 553 82% 17k $249k (exactly $248,684) Avidly Wild Games
BEAST: False Prophet · EA older $24.99 189 64% 5.7k $142k (exactly $141,693) False Prophet
The Banished Vault older $24.99 189 78% 5.7k $142k (exactly $141,693) Lunar Division
Peregrino $16.99 174 65% 5.2k $89k (exactly $88,688) Inverge Studios
Demiurges $14.99 36 88% 1.1k $16k (exactly $16,189) Berih
Ascendant $9.99 47 70% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) Imagisphere
Queen Slayer $6.99 24 54% 720 $5.0k (exactly $5,033) Mantaray161
SUBMERSIBLE $8.99 10 80% 300 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) CJB Games
Throne Requiem $19.99 4 25% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) Michael Richard Lannon
Slot or Die $13.99 3 33% 90 $1.3k (exactly $1,259) cr0cq
Ghoul Thrasher $5.99 6 83% 180 $1.1k (exactly $1,078) Magic Quest Media

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.