Do I ship it?

GamesSpectacle fighterSpectacle fighter + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Spectacle fighter?

Spectacle fighter + Perma Death

Only 8 developers shipped a Perma Death Spectacle fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rune Coliseum, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $500k, ×337 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 15 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 15 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Spectacle fighter + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Spectacle fighter + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $897 (exactly $897)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $136k (exactly $136,005)
Top 5% $505k (exactly $504,754)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 37
Announced 15
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Spectacle fighter, Perma Death
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 4,712 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $500k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 15 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Spectacle fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Score AttackFair31 devs · median $4.3k · 29 announced
  2. + HorrorFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 16 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $65k · 11 announced
  4. + Character Action GamePoor odds22 devs · median $58k · 44 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds16 devs · median $33k · 17 announced
  7. + Sci-fiPoor odds48 devs · median $17k · 82 announced
  8. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $16k · 35 announced
  9. + MythologyPoor odds16 devs · median $11k · 24 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds45 devs · median $7.2k · 86 announced
  11. + FightingPoor odds25 devs · median $7.2k · 40 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds77 devs · median $6.7k · 142 announced

All 99 pairs on the Spectacle fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battle Ram older $29.99 2,204 85% 66k $2.0M (exactly $1,982,939) Runic Rise Games
Rune Coliseum · EA $18.99 886 79% 27k $505k (exactly $504,754) Rafale Software
Heart&Slash older $14.99 519 81% 16k $233k (exactly $233,394) AHEARTFULOFGAMES
Voidborn $12.99 349 81% 10k $136k (exactly $136,005) Xekvera
Trailer Shop Simulator older $4.99 265 73% 8.0k $40k (exactly $39,670) GidAzGames
HAYAI older $1.99 236 98% 7.1k $14k (exactly $14,089) Chaoclypse
Whisper Trip older $4.99 90 60% 2.7k $13k (exactly $13,473) Walnut LLC
MOONPONG: Tales of Epic Lunacy older $5.99 54 92% 1.6k $9.7k (exactly $9,704) PUNKCAKE Delicieux
Bike Rush older $4.99 61 44% 1.8k $9.1k (exactly $9,132) Axyos Games
Nimbusfall older $5.99 48 87% 1.4k $8.6k (exactly $8,626) GodziPixel
Taram Baba $4.00 15 93% 450 $1.8k (exactly $1,800) Sofa Interactive
Fallen King $9.99 5 0% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Fish Bone
The Arena $7.99 4 100% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Big W Games
Ritualist $2.99 10 80% 300 $897 (exactly $897) SHARQ IT LAB
Sewer Crawler $1.99 9 100% 270 $537 (exactly $537) Gromi Momi
Beautiful Cell $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Arsen Kurbanov

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.