Do I ship it?

Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Perma Death game?

Perma Death + Space

Of 77 developers who shipped a Space Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 135 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×446 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 135 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 135 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 77
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $119 → $897 → $1.6k → $809 → $1.4k → $3.0k → $538 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 77
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,316)
Top 5% $280k (exactly $280,388)
Developers, 2 yr 77
Released games 228
Announced 135
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Perma Death; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Procedural Generation, Roguelite
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Difficult, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 22,189 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $4.3k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 135 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

FTL: Faster Than Light 2012 · $19M Marauders 2022 · EA · $12M LOCKDOWN Protocol 2025 · $5.0M Age of Wonders: Planetfall 2019 · $4.3M Heat Signature 2017 · $3.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
FTL: Faster Than Light older $9.99 62,763 94% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,810,071) Subset Games
Marauders · EA older $29.99 13,505 68% 405k $12M (exactly $12,150,448) Small Impact Games
LOCKDOWN Protocol $9.99 16,605 86% 498k $5.0M (exactly $4,976,518) Mirage Creative Lab
Age of Wonders: Planetfall older $29.99 4,758 80% 143k $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) Triumph Studios
Heat Signature older $14.99 6,849 94% 205k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,995) Suspicious Developments
Crying Suns older $24.99 3,149 85% 94k $2.4M (exactly $2,360,805) Alt Shift
Void War $19.99 3,653 94% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704) Tundra
Star Traders: Frontiers older $14.99 3,672 83% 110k $1.7M (exactly $1,651,298) Trese Brothers
轮回修仙路 older $16.99 2,945 82% 88k $1.5M (exactly $1,501,066) 烟水寒工作室
Space Crew: Legendary Edition older $15.99 1,684 77% 51k $808k (exactly $807,815) Runner Duck
Approaching Infinity $17.99 723 95% 22k $390k (exactly $390,203) IBOL
Exo Rally Championship $24.99 374 90% 11k $280k (exactly $280,388) Exbleative
Xenopurge $12.49 419 84% 13k $157k (exactly $156,999) Traptics
Hyperspace Deck Command $19.99 91 95% 2.7k $55k (exactly $54,573) Sleeper Games
Void Marauders $13.99 106 77% 3.2k $44k (exactly $44,488) Autarca
Planet Killer $12.99 94 79% 2.8k $37k (exactly $36,632) Talisman One Studio
Command Deck · EA $14.99 74 98% 2.2k $33k (exactly $33,278) k-critical
Rogue Eclipse $19.99 50 62% 1.5k $30k (exactly $29,985) HUSKRAFTS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.