Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Sci-fi
Should I ship a Sci-fi Perma Death game?
Perma Death + Sci-fi
Of 139 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 265 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $580k, ×1230 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 265 games are announced against 85 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $298 (exactly $298) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.3k (exactly $1,348) |
| Top 25% | $6.6k (exactly $6,593) |
| Top 5% | $584k (exactly $584,108) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 139 |
| Released games | 427 |
| Announced | 265 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Perma Death
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Sci-fi
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Perma Death; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Procedural Generation, Roguelike, Action
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 95% positive over 383,812 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 60 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 265 games are announced against 85 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LGBTQ+Strong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + Creature CollectorFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + PiratesFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + Interactive FictionFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Time ManagementFair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + 3D PlatformerFair
Comparable games
Lethal Company 2023 · EA · $123M 
R.E.P.O. 2025 · EA · $102M 
XCOM® 2 2016 · $48M 
FTL: Faster Than Light 2012 · $19M 
XCOM: Enemy Unknown 2012 · $18M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Lethal Company | · EA older | $9.99 | 411,550 97% | 12M | $123M (exactly $123,341,535) | Zeekerss |
| | R.E.P.O. | · EA | $9.99 | 341,004 96% | 10M | $102M (exactly $102,198,899) | semiwork |
| | XCOM® 2 | older | $19.99 | 79,998 84% | 2.4M | $48M (exactly $47,974,801) | Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | FTL: Faster Than Light | older | $9.99 | 62,763 94% | 1.9M | $19M (exactly $18,810,071) | Subset Games |
| | XCOM: Enemy Unknown | older | $14.99 | 40,345 93% | 1.2M | $18M (exactly $18,143,146) | Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Linux) |
 | Roboquest | older | $24.99 | 19,158 95% | 575k | $14M (exactly $14,362,753) | RyseUp Studios |
 | LOCKDOWN Protocol | $9.99 | 16,605 86% | 498k | $5.0M (exactly $4,976,518) | Mirage Creative Lab | |
 | Age of Wonders: Planetfall | older | $29.99 | 4,758 80% | 143k | $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) | Triumph Studios |
 | Dungeon of the ENDLESS™ | older | $11.99 | 9,419 87% | 283k | $3.4M (exactly $3,388,014) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Nuclear Nightmare | · EA | $6.99 | 15,403 81% | 462k | $3.2M (exactly $3,230,009) | BG Productions |
 | Cyber Knights: Flashpoint | $29.99 | 2,926 93% | 88k | $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) | Trese Brothers | |
 | Void War | $19.99 | 3,653 94% | 110k | $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704) | Tundra | |
 | Battle Shapers | $24.99 | 984 80% | 30k | $738k (exactly $737,705) | Metric Empire | |
 | Primordialis | · EA | $19.99 | 974 93% | 29k | $584k (exactly $584,108) | Kyler Natividad, Keith Sammut |
 | Approaching Infinity | $17.99 | 723 95% | 22k | $390k (exactly $390,203) | IBOL | |
 | Million Depth | $16.99 | 673 93% | 20k | $343k (exactly $343,028) | Cyber Space Biotope | |
 | Ascend to ZERO | $11.99 | 867 82% | 26k | $312k (exactly $311,860) | Flyway Games, Inc. |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.