Do I ship it?

GamesInvestigationInvestigation + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Investigation Perma Death game?

Investigation + Perma Death

Only 16 developers shipped an Investigation Perma Death game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, LOCKDOWN Protocol, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $4.9M, ×10477 the market median. Revenue is up 100% on the market; 26 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 26 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Investigation + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.8k → $1.5k → $1.8k → $1.3k → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Investigation + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $298 (exactly $298)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 5% $5.0M (exactly $4,976,518)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 37
Announced 26
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Investigation, Perma Death; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Roguelike, Simulation
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 16,729 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $4.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. All of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Investigation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomFair61 devs · median $2.1k · 50 announced
  2. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $898 · 16 announced
  3. + TriviaLong shot8 devs · median $215 · 9 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $39k · 70 announced
  5. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 27 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds64 devs · median $9.0k · 121 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds62 devs · median $9.0k · 101 announced
  8. + GothicPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 54 announced
  9. + LovecraftianPoor odds56 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds37 devs · median $6.6k · 50 announced
  11. + Card GamePoor odds14 devs · median $6.6k · 34 announced
  12. + SciencePoor odds21 devs · median $5.9k · 36 announced

All 134 pairs on the Investigation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
LOCKDOWN Protocol $9.99 16,605 86% 498k $5.0M (exactly $4,976,518) Mirage Creative Lab
Ghost Exile · EA older $14.99 3,686 88% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,657,594) LostOneTeam
Fears to Fathom - Norwood Hitchhike older $4.99 3,230 87% 97k $484k (exactly $483,531) Rayll
Long Live Caesar $9.99 51 78% 1.5k $15k (exactly $15,285) Yury Khovansky, Vladislavs Viktorovs
The Office Killer $9.99 13 92% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) IceMoon Games
ZonZon older $4.99 26 84% 780 $3.9k (exactly $3,892) Paphnutius
Rat Prison older $9.99 11 72% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Piece Of Voxel
Martha older $3.99 27 62% 810 $3.2k (exactly $3,232) Affordable Cat
The Last Sight older $7.99 13 84% 390 $3.1k (exactly $3,116) FallenDevs
Collateral Dungeon $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Techosaurus Studios
Plaything $5.99 10 90% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) Bandaloop Games GmbH
The Overseer: Field Trials $3.99 14 92% 420 $1.7k (exactly $1,676) mars
RedLantern | 赤提灯 $4.99 9 66% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) KM Studios
Look At Me $4.99 8 62% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Silly Tiger
AI Fantasy $4.99 6 33% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Zueir AI
Primal Fear $5.99 3 100% 90 $539 (exactly $539) Connor White

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.