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Should I ship a Perma Death Simulation game?
Simulation + Perma Death
Of 135 developers who shipped a Perma Death Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 214 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $580k, ×930 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 214 games are announced against 81 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.3k (exactly $1,348) |
| Top 25% | $14k (exactly $13,623) |
| Top 5% | $584k (exactly $584,108) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 135 |
| Released games | 366 |
| Announced | 214 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Perma Death
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Simulation, Perma Death; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Roguelite
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 93% positive over 143,976 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 67 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 214 games are announced against 81 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomStrong odds
- + World War IFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + PinballFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + BirdsFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + MusicFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + ProgrammingFair
Comparable games
State of Decay 2: Juggernaut Edition 2020 · $53M 
My Summer Car 2025 · $49M 
Don't Starve 2013 · $29M 
FTL: Faster Than Light 2012 · $19M 
My Winter Car 2025 · EA · $8.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | State of Decay 2: Juggernaut Edition | older | $29.99 | 59,156 83% | 1.8M | $53M (exactly $53,222,653) | Undead Labs |
| | My Summer Car | $14.99 | 108,503 94% | 3.3M | $49M (exactly $48,793,799) | Amistech Games | |
| | Don't Starve | older | $9.99 | 97,007 96% | 2.9M | $29M (exactly $29,072,998) | Klei Entertainment |
| | FTL: Faster Than Light | older | $9.99 | 62,763 94% | 1.9M | $19M (exactly $18,810,071) | Subset Games |
| | My Winter Car | · EA | $14.99 | 18,614 94% | 558k | $8.4M (exactly $8,370,716) | Amistech Games |
 | State of Decay: YOSE | older | $19.99 | 10,526 82% | 316k | $6.3M (exactly $6,312,442) | Undead Labs |
 | Bomber Crew | older | $15.99 | 10,416 88% | 312k | $5.0M (exactly $4,996,555) | Runner Duck |
 | Day of Dragons | · EA older | $19.99 | 6,278 68% | 188k | $3.8M (exactly $3,764,917) | Beawesome Games |
 | Invisible, Inc. | older | $19.99 | 5,096 91% | 153k | $3.1M (exactly $3,056,071) | Klei Entertainment |
 | Blackthorn Arena | older | $24.99 | 3,477 69% | 104k | $2.6M (exactly $2,606,707) | PersonaeGame Studio |
 | Void War | $19.99 | 3,653 94% | 110k | $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704) | Tundra | |
 | Everything is Crab: The Animal Evolution Roguelite | $9.99 | 6,876 76% | 206k | $2.1M (exactly $2,060,737) | Odd Dreams Digital | |
 | Bootstrap Island | $24.99 | 1,362 81% | 41k | $1.0M (exactly $1,021,091) | Maru VR | |
 | Dungeon Settlers | · EA | $24.99 | 1,117 79% | 34k | $837k (exactly $837,415) | CanOpener |
 | Coal LLC | $14.99 | 1,343 92% | 40k | $604k (exactly $603,947) | Bye Bye Ocean | |
 | Primordialis | · EA | $19.99 | 974 93% | 29k | $584k (exactly $584,108) | Kyler Natividad, Keith Sammut |
 | Rune Coliseum | · EA | $18.99 | 886 79% | 27k | $505k (exactly $504,754) | Rafale Software |
 | Welcome to the Game III | $19.99 | 648 78% | 19k | $389k (exactly $388,606) | Reflect Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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