Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Destruction game?

Destruction + Perma Death

Only 19 developers shipped a Perma Death Destruction game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Planet Killer, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $36k, ×58 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 38 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 38 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $449 → $2.7k → $2.4k → $418 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,078)
Top 25% $3.8k (exactly $3,778)
Top 5% $37k (exactly $36,632)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 48
Announced 38
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction, Perma Death; all of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Procedural Generation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 249 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $3.7k, 1 in 20 over $36k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Doomsday Hunters older $15.99 703 89% 21k $337k (exactly $337,229) Moregames
Soulash older $14.99 513 69% 15k $231k (exactly $230,696) Artur Smiarowski
Planet Killer $12.99 94 79% 2.8k $37k (exactly $36,632) Talisman One Studio
Blacksea Odyssey older $9.99 96 77% 2.9k $29k (exactly $28,771) Blacksea Odyssey
SKULL CHAINZ older $9.99 32 93% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) Chaoclypse
NO RELOADING: Survival Trials · EA older $14.99 18 100% 540 $8.1k (exactly $8,095) ZoopTEK
Star Mining Co. $8.99 29 82% 870 $7.8k (exactly $7,821) Barney Whiteman
Dread Protocol · EA $7.99 24 83% 720 $5.8k (exactly $5,753) Meat Lab
Conquer Humanity · EA older $2.99 60 68% 1.8k $5.4k (exactly $5,382) Adi Zhavo
Comet Rogue $4.99 28 96% 840 $4.2k (exactly $4,192) Antique Gear Games
Breakfall: Nuclear Winter · EA $17.99 7 28% 210 $3.8k (exactly $3,778) Dominik Geuer
DOOM SPIRAL $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Forbidden Saucery
DOWNMOUSE $3.99 25 92% 750 $3.0k (exactly $2,992) WobblyHandStudio
SUBMERSIBLE $8.99 10 80% 300 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) CJB Games
HEAVENSHATTER $4.99 16 93% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Raifu
Forest Smasher · EA $5.99 6 100% 180 $1.1k (exactly $1,078) Wishure Tech

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.