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Should I ship a Perma Death Destruction game?
Destruction + Perma Death
Only 19 developers shipped a Perma Death Destruction game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Planet Killer, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $36k, ×58 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 38 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $120 (exactly $120) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.1k (exactly $1,078) |
| Top 25% | $3.8k (exactly $3,778) |
| Top 5% | $37k (exactly $36,632) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 19 |
| Released games | 48 |
| Announced | 38 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Destruction
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Perma Death
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Destruction, Perma Death; all of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Procedural Generation
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 249 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $120. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Destruction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Space SimFair
- + ModernFair
- + God GameFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + Hack and SlashPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + CapitalismPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Automobile SimPoor odds
- + ManagementPoor odds
- + AutomationPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Doomsday Hunters | older | $15.99 | 703 89% | 21k | $337k (exactly $337,229) | Moregames |
| | Soulash | older | $14.99 | 513 69% | 15k | $231k (exactly $230,696) | Artur Smiarowski |
| | Planet Killer | $12.99 | 94 79% | 2.8k | $37k (exactly $36,632) | Talisman One Studio | |
| | Blacksea Odyssey | older | $9.99 | 96 77% | 2.9k | $29k (exactly $28,771) | Blacksea Odyssey |
| | SKULL CHAINZ | older | $9.99 | 32 93% | 960 | $9.6k (exactly $9,590) | Chaoclypse |
| | NO RELOADING: Survival Trials | · EA older | $14.99 | 18 100% | 540 | $8.1k (exactly $8,095) | ZoopTEK |
| | Star Mining Co. | $8.99 | 29 82% | 870 | $7.8k (exactly $7,821) | Barney Whiteman | |
| | Dread Protocol | · EA | $7.99 | 24 83% | 720 | $5.8k (exactly $5,753) | Meat Lab |
| | Conquer Humanity | · EA older | $2.99 | 60 68% | 1.8k | $5.4k (exactly $5,382) | Adi Zhavo |
| | Comet Rogue | $4.99 | 28 96% | 840 | $4.2k (exactly $4,192) | Antique Gear Games | |
| | Breakfall: Nuclear Winter | · EA | $17.99 | 7 28% | 210 | $3.8k (exactly $3,778) | Dominik Geuer |
| | DOOM SPIRAL | $9.99 | 10 100% | 300 | $3.0k (exactly $2,997) | Forbidden Saucery | |
| | DOWNMOUSE | $3.99 | 25 92% | 750 | $3.0k (exactly $2,992) | WobblyHandStudio | |
| | SUBMERSIBLE | $8.99 | 10 80% | 300 | $2.7k (exactly $2,697) | CJB Games | |
| | HEAVENSHATTER | $4.99 | 16 93% | 480 | $2.4k (exactly $2,395) | Raifu | |
| | Forest Smasher | · EA | $5.99 | 6 100% | 180 | $1.1k (exactly $1,078) | Wishure Tech |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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