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Should I ship a Procedural Generation Perma Death game?
Procedural Generation + Perma Death
Of 334 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 629 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×4.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×655 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 629 games are announced against 200 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.2k (exactly $2,157) |
| Top 25% | $12k (exactly $12,142) |
| Top 5% | $311k (exactly $311,192) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 334 |
| Released games | 901 |
| Announced | 629 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Procedural Generation
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Perma Death
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Procedural Generation, Perma Death; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Roguelite, Action
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Difficult
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 95% positive over 401,795 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 145 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 629 games are announced against 200 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Procedural Generation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SnowFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + DetectiveFair
- + Word GameFair
- + TypingFair
- + IdlerFair
- + LogicFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + TrainsPoor odds
Comparable games
Lethal Company 2023 · EA · $123M 
R.E.P.O. 2025 · EA · $102M 
Darkest Dungeon® II 2023 · $29M 
FTL: Faster Than Light 2012 · $19M 
Spelunky 2 2020 · $12M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Lethal Company | · EA older | $9.99 | 411,550 97% | 12M | $123M (exactly $123,341,535) | Zeekerss |
| | R.E.P.O. | · EA | $9.99 | 341,004 96% | 10M | $102M (exactly $102,198,899) | semiwork |
| | Darkest Dungeon® II | older | $39.99 | 24,249 74% | 727k | $29M (exactly $29,091,525) | Red Hook Studios |
| | FTL: Faster Than Light | older | $9.99 | 62,763 94% | 1.9M | $19M (exactly $18,810,071) | Subset Games |
| | Spelunky 2 | older | $19.99 | 19,736 93% | 592k | $12M (exactly $11,835,679) | Mossmouth, BlitWorks |
 | The Binding of Isaac | older | $4.99 | 49,208 94% | 1.5M | $7.4M (exactly $7,366,438) | Edmund McMillen, Florian Himsl |
 | White Knuckle | · EA | $16.99 | 13,356 98% | 401k | $6.8M (exactly $6,807,553) | Dark Machine Games |
 | Spelunky | older | $14.99 | 14,676 92% | 440k | $6.6M (exactly $6,599,797) | Mossmouth |
 | Elin | · EA | $19.99 | 8,406 93% | 252k | $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) | Lafrontier |
 | Wildfrost | older | $19.99 | 8,175 82% | 245k | $4.9M (exactly $4,902,548) | Deadpan Games, Gaziter |
 | Nuclear Nightmare | · EA | $6.99 | 15,403 81% | 462k | $3.2M (exactly $3,230,009) | BG Productions |
 | SWORN | $24.99 | 3,779 80% | 113k | $2.8M (exactly $2,833,116) | Windwalk Games | |
 | Void War | $19.99 | 3,653 94% | 110k | $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704) | Tundra | |
 | Everything is Crab: The Animal Evolution Roguelite | $9.99 | 6,876 76% | 206k | $2.1M (exactly $2,060,737) | Odd Dreams Digital | |
 | Aethermancer | · EA | $25.99 | 2,585 91% | 78k | $2.0M (exactly $2,015,524) | moi rai games |
 | Pathogenic | $9.99 | 4,145 92% | 124k | $1.2M (exactly $1,242,256) | Aberrant Labs | |
 | Dwarves: Glory, Death and Loot | $14.99 | 2,588 82% | 78k | $1.2M (exactly $1,163,824) | Hamma Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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