Do I ship it?

GamesPerma DeathPerma Death + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Perma Death game?

Perma Death + Fantasy

Of 222 developers who shipped a Fantasy Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 380 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×290 the market median. Revenue is up 150% on the market; 380 games are announced against 133 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 150% on the market, 380 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 222
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.6k → $2.7k → $2.0k → $1.7k → $1.3k → $2.5k → $1.9k (still earning) → $3.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 222
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,510)
Top 5% $138k (exactly $137,515)
Developers, 2 yr 222
Released games 595
Announced 380
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 150% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Perma Death; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Roguelite, RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 7,611 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 98 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 380 games are announced against 133 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Darkest Dungeon® older $24.99 140,790 91% 4.2M $106M (exactly $105,550,263) Red Hook Studios
Peglin older $19.99 16,626 83% 499k $10M (exactly $9,970,612) Red Nexus Games Inc.
The Last Spell older $24.99 13,260 91% 398k $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) Ishtar Games
Wildfrost older $19.99 8,175 82% 245k $4.9M (exactly $4,902,548) Deadpan Games, Gaziter
Mordheim: City of the Damned older $19.99 7,056 72% 212k $4.2M (exactly $4,231,483) Rogue Factor
Astral Ascent older $24.99 5,408 94% 162k $4.1M (exactly $4,054,378) Hibernian Workshop
Day of Dragons · EA older $19.99 6,278 68% 188k $3.8M (exactly $3,764,917) Beawesome Games
NECROPOLIS: BRUTAL EDITION older $29.99 3,696 63% 111k $3.3M (exactly $3,325,291) Harebrained Schemes
Crown Trick older $19.99 4,509 85% 135k $2.7M (exactly $2,704,047) NEXT Studios
Dark Deity older $24.99 2,652 72% 80k $2.0M (exactly $1,988,204) Sword & Axe LLC
Dwarves: Glory, Death and Loot $14.99 2,588 82% 78k $1.2M (exactly $1,163,824) Hamma Studios
Dice Gambit $24.99 1,080 87% 32k $810k (exactly $809,676) Chromatic Ink
Spark in the Dark · EA $16.99 1,174 87% 35k $598k (exactly $598,388) Stellar Fish
Bloodgrounds $19.99 561 77% 17k $336k (exactly $336,432) Exordium Games
Soulslinger: Envoy of Death $19.99 472 63% 14k $283k (exactly $283,058) Elder Games
9th Dawn Remake $15.99 514 86% 15k $247k (exactly $246,566) Valorware
The Monster Breeder $29.99 272 91% 8.2k $245k (exactly $244,718) Fantasy Creations
Escape The Mad Empire · EA $17.99 406 88% 12k $219k (exactly $219,118) XperimentalZ Games
Dawncaster | The RPG Cardventure $19.99 274 81% 8.2k $164k (exactly $164,318) Wanderlost Interactive
Astral Throne $19.99 270 80% 8.1k $162k (exactly $161,919) Zero Sun Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.