Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Open World

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Open World game?

Open World

Of 2,347 developers who shipped an Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5,478 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×2.1 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $3.7M, ×2529 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 5,478 games are announced against 1,370 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 5,478 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 2,347
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.4k → $2.8k → $4.8k → $3.8k → $3.1k → $2.7k → $3.2k (still earning) → $3.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 2,347
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,148)
Top 25% $55k (exactly $54,863)
Top 5% $3.8M (exactly $3,788,154)
Developers, 2 yr 2,347
Released games 8,534
Announced 5,478
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 2,427,867 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $54k, 1 in 20 over $3.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 1,260 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 5,478 games are announced against 1,370 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Open World

241 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Open World + Survival Horror Poor odds $2.6k 164 devs
  2. Open World + Submarine Poor odds $2.4k 10 devs
  3. Open World + Action Poor odds $2.4k 1,100 devs
  4. Open World + Sci-fi Poor odds $2.4k 288 devs
  5. Open World + Multiple Endings Poor odds $2.4k 168 devs
  6. Open World + Local Multiplayer Poor odds $2.4k 35 devs
  7. Open World + Cats Poor odds $2.4k 34 devs
  8. Open World + Logic Poor odds $2.4k 72 devs
  9. Open World + Parkour Poor odds $2.4k 57 devs
  10. Open World + Idler Poor odds $2.3k 50 devs
  11. Open World + Investigation Poor odds $2.3k 69 devs
  12. Open World + Sports Poor odds $2.2k 73 devs
  13. Open World + Outbreak Sim Poor odds $2.2k 12 devs
  14. Open World + Robots Poor odds $2.2k 39 devs
  15. Open World + Psychological Horror Poor odds $2.0k 139 devs
  16. Open World + Horror Poor odds $1.9k 246 devs
  17. Open World + Time Manipulation Poor odds $1.9k 16 devs
  18. Open World + FPS Poor odds $1.9k 234 devs
  19. Open World + Time Management Poor odds $1.9k 84 devs
  20. Open World + Perma Death Poor odds $1.9k 57 devs
  21. Open World + Action RPG Poor odds $1.8k 398 devs
  22. Open World + Turn-Based Strategy Poor odds $1.8k 64 devs
  23. Open World + Spaceships Poor odds $1.8k 9 devs
  24. Open World + Zombies Poor odds $1.8k 143 devs
  25. Open World + Roguelike Poor odds $1.8k 116 devs
  26. Open World + Programming Poor odds $1.8k 9 devs
  27. Open World + Mystery Poor odds $1.8k 197 devs
  28. Open World + Dystopian Poor odds $1.7k 53 devs
  29. Open World + Boomer Shooter Poor odds $1.7k 14 devs
  30. Open World + PvE Poor odds $1.7k 391 devs
  31. Open World + Nature Poor odds $1.7k 294 devs
  32. Open World + Mystery Dungeon Poor odds $1.6k 30 devs
  33. Open World + Spectacle fighter Poor odds $1.6k 21 devs
  34. Open World + Action RTS Poor odds $1.6k 22 devs
  35. Open World + Word Game Poor odds $1.6k 16 devs
  36. Open World + Puzzle Poor odds $1.6k 229 devs
  37. Open World + Walking Simulator Poor odds $1.5k 208 devs
  38. Open World + Dungeon Crawler Poor odds $1.5k 144 devs
  39. Open World + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $1.5k 64 devs
  40. Open World + Supernatural Poor odds $1.5k 49 devs
  41. Open World + Archery Poor odds $1.5k 15 devs
  42. Open World + Combat Racing Poor odds $1.4k 33 devs
  43. Open World + Gun Customization Poor odds $1.4k 33 devs
  44. Open World + Action-Adventure Poor odds $1.3k 709 devs
  45. Open World + Offroad Poor odds $1.3k 22 devs
  46. Open World + Combat Poor odds $1.3k 458 devs
  47. Open World + Third-Person Shooter Poor odds $1.3k 140 devs
  48. Open World + Bullet Time Poor odds $1.3k 12 devs
  49. Open World + Psychological Poor odds $1.2k 32 devs
  50. Open World + Incremental Poor odds $1.2k 40 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B Black Myth: Wukong 2024 · $1.6B Red Dead Redemption 2 2019 · $1.5B ELDEN RING 2022 · $1.5B Rust 2018 · $1.4B
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyberpunk 2077 older $59.99 883,400 87% 27M $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) CD PROJEKT RED
Black Myth: Wukong older $59.99 881,186 96% 26M $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) Game Science
Red Dead Redemption 2 older $59.99 846,270 92% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,523,032,119) Rockstar Games
ELDEN RING older $59.99 831,470 93% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) FromSoftware, Inc.
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition older $49.99 823,357 96% 25M $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) CD PROJEKT RED
HELLDIVERS™ 2 older $39.99 838,901 76% 25M $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) Arrowhead Game Studios
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
DARK SOULS™ III older $59.99 278,034 94% 8.3M $500M (exactly $500,377,790) FromSoftware, Inc.
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II $59.99 144,558 93% 4.3M $260M (exactly $260,161,033) Warhorse Studios
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
Monster Hunter Wilds $39.99 200,984 52% 6.0M $241M (exactly $241,120,505) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Hollow Knight: Silksong $19.99 386,977 89% 12M $232M (exactly $232,070,107) Team Cherry
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced $29.99 210,784 83% 6.3M $190M (exactly $189,642,365) Rockstar North
Forza Horizon 6 $69.99 86,730 82% 2.6M $182M (exactly $182,106,981) Playground Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.