Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Open World game?

Open World + Psychological Horror

Of 139 developers who shipped a Psychological-Horror Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 258 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $2.7M, ×1866 the market median. Revenue is up 330% on the market; 258 games are announced against 84 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 330% on the market, 258 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 139
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $2.2k → $2.7k → $4.2k → $839 → $1.8k → $4.0k (still earning) → $4.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 139
Bottom 30% $750 (exactly $750)
Median $2.0k (exactly $2,035)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $19,513)
Top 5% $2.8M (exactly $2,795,368)
Developers, 2 yr 139
Released games 457
Announced 258
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 330% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 302,215 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $2.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 8 in 10 of the 62 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 258 games are announced against 84 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HELLDIVERS™ 2 older $39.99 838,901 76% 25M $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) Arrowhead Game Studios
Resident Evil Village older $39.99 106,447 95% 3.2M $128M (exactly $127,704,466) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Metro Exodus older $29.99 117,453 90% 3.5M $106M (exactly $105,672,464) 4A Games
Subnautica 2 · EA $29.99 116,852 91% 3.5M $105M (exactly $105,131,744) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Cities: Skylines II older $49.99 64,211 57% 1.9M $96M (exactly $96,297,237) Iceflake Studios, Colossal Order
Outer Wilds older $24.99 89,506 95% 2.7M $67M (exactly $67,102,648) Mobius Digital
CONTROL Ultimate Edition older $39.99 50,602 86% 1.5M $61M (exactly $60,707,219) Remedy Entertainment
Call of Duty®: WWII older $59.99 33,576 71% 1.0M $60M (exactly $60,426,727) Sledgehammer Games, Raven Software
Metro 2033 Redux older $19.99 94,968 91% 2.8M $57M (exactly $56,952,310) 4A Games
Firewatch older $19.99 93,690 90% 2.8M $56M (exactly $56,185,893) Campo Santo
My Summer Car $14.99 108,503 94% 3.3M $49M (exactly $48,793,799) Amistech Games
Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 $69.99 21,633 59% 649k $45M (exactly $45,422,810) Asobo Studio
CODE VEIN II $69.99 5,193 66% 156k $11M (exactly $10,903,742) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
My Winter Car · EA $14.99 18,614 94% 558k $8.4M (exactly $8,370,716) Amistech Games
Nuclear Nightmare · EA $6.99 15,403 81% 462k $3.2M (exactly $3,230,009) BG Productions
BLACK SOULS $13.99 7,337 95% 220k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,339) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
The Mound: Omen of Cthulhu $29.99 3,107 69% 93k $2.8M (exactly $2,795,368) ACE Team
Enigma of Fear $29.99 3,045 95% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,739,586) Dumativa, Cellbit
Pathologic 3 $34.99 2,528 80% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,653,642) Ice-Pick Lodge

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.