Games › Open World › Open World + FPS
Should I ship an FPS Open World game?
Open World + FPS
Of 234 developers who shipped an FPS Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 525 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×1.3 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $9.7M, ×6500 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 525 games are announced against 115 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $599 (exactly $599) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.9k (exactly $1,946) |
| Top 25% | $31k (exactly $30,638) |
| Top 5% | $9.7M (exactly $9,737,329) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 234 |
| Released games | 1,015 |
| Announced | 525 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- FPS
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, FPS; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Exploration
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 749,040 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 142 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 525 games are announced against 115 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B 
Red Dead Redemption 2 2019 · $1.5B 
Rust 2018 · $1.4B 
DayZ 2018 · $582M 
No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Cyberpunk 2077 | older | $59.99 | 883,400 87% | 27M | $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Red Dead Redemption 2 | older | $59.99 | 846,270 92% | 25M | $1.5B (exactly $1,523,032,119) | Rockstar Games |
| | Rust | older | $39.99 | 1,167,920 87% | 35M | $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) | Facepunch Studios |
| | DayZ | older | $49.99 | 387,850 78% | 12M | $582M (exactly $581,658,645) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | No Man's Sky | older | $59.99 | 315,054 83% | 9.5M | $567M (exactly $567,002,684) | Hello Games |
 | Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition | older | $39.99 | 322,072 88% | 9.7M | $386M (exactly $386,389,778) | Rare Ltd |
 | 7 Days to Die | older | $44.99 | 273,589 87% | 8.2M | $369M (exactly $369,263,073) | The Fun Pimps |
 | Battlefield™ V | older | $49.99 | 236,709 70% | 7.1M | $355M (exactly $354,992,487) | DICE |
 | Far Cry® 5 | older | $59.99 | 172,897 81% | 5.2M | $311M (exactly $311,162,731) | Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Sh… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Kiev) |
 | Dying Light | older | $24.99 | 373,413 95% | 11M | $280M (exactly $279,947,726) | Techland |
 | S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl | $59.99 | 106,592 81% | 3.2M | $192M (exactly $191,833,622) | GSC Game World | |
 | Schedule I | · EA | $19.99 | 288,939 97% | 8.7M | $173M (exactly $173,276,718) | TVGS |
 | SCUM | $44.99 | 98,554 74% | 3.0M | $133M (exactly $133,018,334) | Gamepires | |
 | Borderlands 4 | $69.99 | 57,874 59% | 1.7M | $122M (exactly $121,518,038) | Gearbox Software | |
 | WARDOGS | · EA | $39.99 | 58,250 81% | 1.7M | $70M (exactly $69,882,525) | BULKHEAD |
 | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon | $44.99 | 33,560 87% | 1.0M | $45M (exactly $45,295,932) | Questline | |
 | Slime Rancher 2 | $29.99 | 43,590 94% | 1.3M | $39M (exactly $39,217,923) | Monomi Park | |
 | Call of Duty®: Black Ops 6 | $69.99 | 14,063 44% | 422k | $30M (exactly $29,528,081) | Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High… (Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Activision Shanghai, Sledgehammer Games, Infinity Ward, Demonware) | |
 | Indiana Jones and the Great Circle | $69.99 | 13,058 89% | 392k | $27M (exactly $27,417,883) | MachineGames | |
 | Deadside | $24.99 | 34,560 76% | 1.0M | $26M (exactly $25,909,632) | Bad Pixel |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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