Games › Open World › Open World + Third-Person Shooter
Should I ship a Third-Person Shooter Open World game?
Open World + Third-Person Shooter
Of 140 developers who shipped a Third-Person Shooter Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 307 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×0.9 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $25M, ×17296 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 307 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.3k (exactly $1,346) |
| Top 25% | $30k (exactly $29,799) |
| Top 5% | $26M (exactly $25,909,632) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 140 |
| Released games | 534 |
| Announced | 307 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Third-Person Shooter
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Third-Person Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Adventure
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,041,906 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 83 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 307 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Red Dead Redemption 2 2019 · $1.5B 
HELLDIVERS™ 2 2024 · $1.0B 
Palworld 2026 · $371M 
ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M 
Arma 3 2013 · $206M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Red Dead Redemption 2 | older | $59.99 | 846,270 92% | 25M | $1.5B (exactly $1,523,032,119) | Rockstar Games |
| | HELLDIVERS™ 2 | older | $39.99 | 838,901 76% | 25M | $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) | Arrowhead Game Studios |
| | Palworld | $29.99 | 411,947 94% | 12M | $371M (exactly $370,628,716) | Pocketpair | |
| | ARC Raiders | $39.99 | 299,346 82% | 9.0M | $359M (exactly $359,125,396) | Embark Studios | |
| | Arma 3 | older | $29.99 | 228,910 90% | 6.9M | $206M (exactly $205,950,327) | Bohemia Interactive |
 | Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced | $29.99 | 210,784 83% | 6.3M | $190M (exactly $189,642,365) | Rockstar North | |
 | Fallout 4 | older | $19.99 | 290,555 81% | 8.7M | $174M (exactly $174,245,834) | Bethesda Game Studios |
 | Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon® Wildlands | older | $49.99 | 99,590 78% | 3.0M | $149M (exactly $149,355,123) | Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft… (Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Milan, Reflections, Ubisoft Belgrade) |
 | Watch_Dogs® 2 | older | $49.99 | 95,242 82% | 2.9M | $143M (exactly $142,834,427) | Ubisoft |
 | Rise of the Tomb Raider™ | older | $29.99 | 127,316 94% | 3.8M | $115M (exactly $114,546,205) | Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral… (Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux), Nixxes) |
 | DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH | $69.99 | 15,434 94% | 463k | $32M (exactly $32,406,770) | KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS, Nixxes Software | |
 | Mafia: The Old Country | $49.99 | 20,909 71% | 627k | $31M (exactly $31,357,227) | Hangar 13 | |
 | Red Dead Redemption | $49.99 | 20,294 92% | 609k | $30M (exactly $30,434,912) | Rockstar Games, Double Eleven | |
 | Deadside | $24.99 | 34,560 76% | 1.0M | $26M (exactly $25,909,632) | Bad Pixel | |
 | Star Wars Outlaws | $69.99 | 12,268 71% | 368k | $26M (exactly $25,759,120) | Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio | |
 | Sniper Elite: Resistance | $49.99 | 4,825 75% | 145k | $7.2M (exactly $7,236,052) | Rebellion | |
 | VEIN | · EA | $19.99 | 11,539 87% | 346k | $6.9M (exactly $6,919,938) | Ramjet Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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