Games › Open World › Open World + Offroad
Should I ship an Offroad Open World game?
Open World + Offroad
Of 22 developers who shipped an Offroad Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×0.9 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×845 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 50 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $358 (exactly $358) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.3k (exactly $1,349) |
| Top 25% | $37k (exactly $36,875) |
| Top 5% | $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 22 |
| Released games | 91 |
| Announced | 50 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Offroad
- effort 7 / 10 · low · terrain and suspension physics
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Offroad; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Racing, Automobile Sim
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Third Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 10,319 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 6 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Need for Speed™ Payback 2020 · $25M 
DiRT Rally 2.0 2019 · $23M 
MudRunner 2017 · $23M 
WRC 7 FIA World Rally Championship 2017 · $7.3M 
Naval Action 2019 · $6.1M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Need for Speed™ Payback | older | $29.99 | 27,424 85% | 823k | $25M (exactly $24,673,373) | Ghost Games |
| | DiRT Rally 2.0 | older | $19.99 | 39,091 89% | 1.2M | $23M (exactly $23,442,873) | Codemasters |
| | MudRunner | older | $19.99 | 37,705 91% | 1.1M | $23M (exactly $22,611,688) | Saber Interactive |
| | WRC 7 FIA World Rally Championship | older | $19.99 | 12,146 82% | 364k | $7.3M (exactly $7,283,956) | KT Racing |
| | Naval Action | older | $19.99 | 10,187 52% | 306k | $6.1M (exactly $6,109,144) | Bermuda Computer Club |
 | JDM: Japanese Drift Master | $34.99 | 5,217 75% | 157k | $5.5M (exactly $5,476,285) | Gaming Factory | |
 | MX vs ATV Legends | older | $39.99 | 4,524 82% | 136k | $5.4M (exactly $5,427,443) | Rainbow Studios |
 | WRC 10 FIA World Rally Championship | older | $49.99 | 2,657 73% | 80k | $4.0M (exactly $3,984,703) | KT Racing |
 | Expeditions: A MudRunner Game | older | $39.99 | 3,000 59% | 90k | $3.6M (exactly $3,599,100) | Saber Interactive |
 | WRC 9 FIA World Rally Championship | older | $29.99 | 3,642 77% | 109k | $3.3M (exactly $3,276,707) | KT Racing |
 | FUMES | · EA | $14.99 | 2,816 95% | 84k | $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355) | FUMES team |
 | Pure Rock Crawling | $14.99 | 1,291 83% | 39k | $581k (exactly $580,563) | Maciej Kuzianik | |
 | Unbridled: That Horse Game | · EA | $24.99 | 487 85% | 15k | $365k (exactly $365,104) | Mind Evotion Games |
 | Bar After Bar | $6.99 | 331 87% | 9.9k | $69k (exactly $69,411) | OneMan Tim | |
 | Park Ranger Simulator | $14.99 | 82 17% | 2.5k | $37k (exactly $36,875) | Polygon Art | |
 | Virtual Driving School | $19.99 | 32 37% | 960 | $19k (exactly $19,190) | CGA Simulation | |
 | Highway Drifter: Hajwala Simulator | $9.99 | 30 86% | 900 | $9.0k (exactly $8,991) | Mad Hook | |
 | Designated Driver Simulator | · EA | $17.99 | 16 62% | 480 | $8.6k (exactly $8,635) | PostSIM |
 | Big Theft Valkeala | $2.99 | 17 76% | 510 | $1.5k (exactly $1,525) | Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software, Kendall… (Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software, Kendall Studios) |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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