Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + Boomer Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Boomer Shooter Open World game?

Open World + Boomer Shooter

Only 14 developers shipped a Boomer Shooter Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, FUMES, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×1.1 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×845 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 14 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 14 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Boomer Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.2k → $179 → $29k
Outcomes for Open World + Boomer Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,709)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,949)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 27
Announced 14
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $13.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Boomer Shooter
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Boomer Shooter
Price point
$13.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 3,064 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Serious Sam 4 older $39.99 15,612 83% 468k $19M (exactly $18,729,716) Croteam
I Am Your Beast older $19.99 5,275 97% 158k $3.2M (exactly $3,163,417) Strange Scaffold
FUMES · EA $14.99 2,816 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355) FUMES team
Zombie Driver HD older $9.99 2,770 84% 83k $830k (exactly $830,169) Exor Studios
Strife: Veteran Edition older $9.99 475 90% 14k $142k (exactly $142,358) Rogue Entertainment
Second Sun $19.99 115 69% 3.5k $69k (exactly $68,966) Grey Wolf Entertainment
Star Explorers older $4.99 245 82% 7.4k $37k (exactly $36,676) Schmidt Workshops
CyberTaxi: Lunatic Nights · EA $13.99 68 55% 2.0k $29k (exactly $28,540) Hed Media Games
The Explorator · EA $13.99 38 73% 1.1k $16k (exactly $15,949) Remnant games studio
TAGLINE older $9.99 52 92% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,584) NOTH
Escape From Infection Zone $39.99 6 100% 180 $7.2k (exactly $7,198) Funbang
Night of the Dead Simulator $7.99 12 50% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) Unknown People Lab
Under Destruction · EA $18.99 3 66% 90 $1.7k (exactly $1,709) Quantum Dynamics
Operation Obliteration 2 $14.99 3 0% 90 $1.3k (exactly $1,349) Oblit Gamewerks
Enemy Territory Terrorists Takedown $2.99 2 50% 60 $179 (exactly $179) ismail özel
Doom Drive $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Berk Kalfa

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.