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Should I ship an Investigation Open World game?
Open World + Investigation
Of 69 developers who shipped an Investigation Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 159 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×1.5 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $2.7M, ×1829 the market median. Revenue is up 90% on the market; 159 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $419 (exactly $419) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.3k (exactly $2,274) |
| Top 25% | $29k (exactly $29,128) |
| Top 5% | $2.7M (exactly $2,739,586) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 69 |
| Released games | 222 |
| Announced | 159 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Investigation
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Investigation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, First-Person, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 91% positive over 59,887 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 159 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle 2024 · $27M 
Police Simulator: Patrol Officers 2022 · $23M 
Big Walk 2026 · $19M 
L.A. Noire 2011 · $19M 
The Forgotten City 2021 · $8.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Indiana Jones and the Great Circle | $69.99 | 13,058 89% | 392k | $27M (exactly $27,417,883) | MachineGames | |
| | Police Simulator: Patrol Officers | older | $39.99 | 18,880 75% | 566k | $23M (exactly $22,650,336) | Aesir Interactive |
| | Big Walk | $19.99 | 32,470 95% | 974k | $19M (exactly $19,472,259) | House House | |
| | L.A. Noire | older | $19.99 | 31,099 85% | 933k | $19M (exactly $18,650,070) | Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds |
| | The Forgotten City | older | $24.99 | 11,159 96% | 335k | $8.4M (exactly $8,365,902) | Modern Storyteller |
 | Fate Seeker II | older | $22.60 | 11,360 88% | 341k | $7.7M (exactly $7,702,080) | JSL Entertainment |
 | The Precinct | $29.99 | 7,837 87% | 235k | $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) | Fallen Tree Games Ltd | |
 | The Sinking City Remastered | older | $39.99 | 5,361 75% | 161k | $6.4M (exactly $6,431,592) | Frogwares |
 | Sherlock Holmes: Crimes and Punishments | older | $29.99 | 7,130 89% | 214k | $6.4M (exactly $6,414,861) | Frogwares |
 | Sherlock Holmes Chapter One | older | $44.99 | 4,189 77% | 126k | $5.7M (exactly $5,653,893) | Frogwares |
 | Enigma of Fear | $29.99 | 3,045 95% | 91k | $2.7M (exactly $2,739,586) | Dumativa, Cellbit | |
 | 1666: Amsterdam | · EA | $29.99 | 784 63% | 24k | $705k (exactly $705,365) | Panache Digital Games |
 | Equinox: Homecoming | $14.99 | 1,294 80% | 39k | $582k (exactly $581,912) | Blue Scarab Entertainment | |
 | Responding | · EA | $24.99 | 409 45% | 12k | $307k (exactly $306,627) | Visionary Studios |
 | On Your Tail | $19.99 | 292 87% | 8.8k | $175k (exactly $175,112) | Memorable Games | |
 | Vaudeville | $19.99 | 283 48% | 8.5k | $170k (exactly $169,715) | Bumblebee Studios | |
 | Once Alive | $11.99 | 415 82% | 12k | $149k (exactly $149,276) | Cem Boray Yıldırım |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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