Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Time Manipulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time Manipulation Open World game?

Open World + Time Manipulation

Only 16 developers shipped a Time Manipulation Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Time Flies, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×8.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×1.3 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×111 the market median. Revenue is up 300% on the market; 52 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 300% on the market, 52 announced, ×8.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Time Manipulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $56k → $599 → $5.1k → $36k → $3.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Time Manipulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,948)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,294)
Top 5% $166k (exactly $166,389)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 53
Announced 52
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 300% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Time Manipulation
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 691 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Quantum Break 2016 · $28M Prince of Persia: Warrior Within™ 2008 · $1.2M No Time 2019 · EA · $825k NUTS 2021 · $663k Shadwen 2016 · $535k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Quantum Break older $39.99 23,141 86% 694k $28M (exactly $27,762,258) Remedy Entertainment
Prince of Persia: Warrior Within™ older $9.99 3,933 82% 118k $1.2M (exactly $1,178,720) Ubisoft
No Time · EA older $12.99 2,117 97% 64k $825k (exactly $824,995) Lost in Days Studio
NUTS older $24.99 884 88% 27k $663k (exactly $662,735) Joon, Pol, Muutsch, Char & Torfi
Shadwen older $16.99 1,049 77% 31k $535k (exactly $534,675) Frozenbyte
Arizona Derby older $18.99 601 77% 18k $342k (exactly $342,390) Falcon Interactive
灵墟 older $10.99 946 86% 28k $312k (exactly $311,896) HappyTall Game
SeaOrama: World of Shipping older $19.99 382 58% 11k $229k (exactly $229,085) Hidden Tower, SeaOrama
Time Flies $14.99 370 96% 11k $166k (exactly $166,389) Playables
Timeloop: Sink Again Beach older $11.99 350 90% 11k $126k (exactly $125,895) Fang's Lab, Flatcoon
Toroban $20.00 60 86% 1.8k $36k (exactly $36,000) Hebert Games LLC
Unaware in The City $5.99 194 81% 5.8k $35k (exactly $34,862) Mr. Unaware Studios
Accretion $9.99 21 38% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) ValarFerys
Paradox Guardians · EA $12.99 13 38% 390 $5.1k (exactly $5,066) Paraguard
Daughter of The Void · EA $9.99 15 100% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Shaybabe
Macht: Cosmic Engine · EA $24.99 5 80% 150 $3.7k (exactly $3,748) Kestro Games
Law of Demons $12.99 5 60% 150 $1.9k (exactly $1,948) Sierra Nevada Tunis
Mental Hellacious $13.99 4 50% 120 $1.7k (exactly $1,679) MoreNEWttoStudio
Blue Hill Wendigo $6.99 4 75% 120 $839 (exactly $839) Merchant Of Stories

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.