Games › Open World › Open World + Supernatural
Should I ship a Supernatural Open World game?
Open World + Supernatural
Of 49 developers who shipped a Supernatural Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 122 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.5k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $700k, ×471 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 122 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $537 (exactly $537) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.5k (exactly $1,498) |
| Top 25% | $23k (exactly $22,567) |
| Top 5% | $705k (exactly $705,365) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 49 |
| Released games | 145 |
| Announced | 122 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Supernatural
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action-Adventure, Exploration
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, Dark
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 12,620 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 122 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
CONTROL Ultimate Edition 2020 · $61M 
Dishonored 2 2016 · $39M 
Ghostwire: Tokyo 2022 · $23M 
Darkwood 2017 · $13M 
BIGFOOT 2017 · EA · $11M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | CONTROL Ultimate Edition | older | $39.99 | 50,602 86% | 1.5M | $61M (exactly $60,707,219) | Remedy Entertainment |
| | Dishonored 2 | older | $29.99 | 42,988 90% | 1.3M | $39M (exactly $38,676,304) | Arkane Studios |
| | Ghostwire: Tokyo | older | $59.99 | 12,954 83% | 389k | $23M (exactly $23,313,314) | Tango Gameworks |
| | Darkwood | older | $19.99 | 22,236 94% | 667k | $13M (exactly $13,334,929) | Acid Wizard Studio |
| | BIGFOOT | · EA older | $19.99 | 17,818 83% | 535k | $11M (exactly $10,685,455) | CyberLight Game Studio |
 | Amnesia: The Bunker | older | $24.99 | 10,349 93% | 310k | $7.8M (exactly $7,758,645) | Frictional Games |
 | Murdered: Soul Suspect | older | $19.99 | 12,051 87% | 362k | $7.2M (exactly $7,226,985) | Airtight Games |
 | Hell is Us | $49.99 | 4,279 83% | 128k | $6.4M (exactly $6,417,216) | Rogue Factor | |
 | The Vanishing of Ethan Carter | older | $19.99 | 6,862 87% | 206k | $4.1M (exactly $4,115,141) | The Astronauts |
 | The Painscreek Killings | older | $19.99 | 5,784 90% | 174k | $3.5M (exactly $3,468,665) | EQ Studios |
 | Enigma of Fear | $29.99 | 3,045 95% | 91k | $2.7M (exactly $2,739,586) | Dumativa, Cellbit | |
 | 1666: Amsterdam | · EA | $29.99 | 784 63% | 24k | $705k (exactly $705,365) | Panache Digital Games |
 | Folklore Hunter | $17.99 | 1,217 75% | 37k | $657k (exactly $656,815) | Liquid Donkey Games | |
 | Shattered Minds | · EA | $12.99 | 1,507 91% | 45k | $587k (exactly $587,278) | eXtasy Games |
 | Wheel World | $19.99 | 735 90% | 22k | $441k (exactly $440,779) | Messhof | |
 | Once Alive | $11.99 | 415 82% | 12k | $149k (exactly $149,276) | Cem Boray Yıldırım | |
 | Mosaic of the Strange | $12.99 | 226 92% | 6.8k | $88k (exactly $88,072) | Mark Ffrench | |
 | Mosaic of The Pharaohs | $8.99 | 297 92% | 8.9k | $80k (exactly $80,101) | Mark Ffrench | |
 | Second Sun | $19.99 | 115 69% | 3.5k | $69k (exactly $68,966) | Grey Wolf Entertainment |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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