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Should I ship a Spectacle fighter Open World game?
Open World + Spectacle fighter
Of 21 developers who shipped a Spectacle fighter Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×5.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×1.1 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $38M, ×25392 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 47 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $240 (exactly $240) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.6k (exactly $1,648) |
| Top 25% | $231k (exactly $230,927) |
| Top 5% | $38M (exactly $38,036,891) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 21 |
| Released games | 78 |
| Announced | 47 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Spectacle fighter
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Spectacle fighter; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action RPG, RPG
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 118,201 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $240. 6 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
NieR:Automata™ 2017 · $138M 
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO 2024 · $76M 
FINAL FANTASY VII REBIRTH 2025 · $38M 
FINAL FANTASY XVI 2024 · $36M 
Onimusha: Way of the Sword 2026 · $24M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | NieR:Automata™ | older | $39.99 | 115,103 88% | 3.5M | $138M (exactly $138,089,069) | Square Enix, PlatinumGames Inc. |
| | DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO | $49.99 | 50,395 86% | 1.5M | $76M (exactly $75,577,382) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. | |
| | FINAL FANTASY VII REBIRTH | $49.99 | 25,363 75% | 761k | $38M (exactly $38,036,891) | Square Enix | |
| | FINAL FANTASY XVI | $49.99 | 24,065 78% | 722k | $36M (exactly $36,090,280) | Square Enix | |
| | Onimusha: Way of the Sword | $69.99 | 11,279 89% | 338k | $24M (exactly $23,682,516) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
 | Darksiders II Deathinitive Edition | older | $29.99 | 16,313 78% | 489k | $15M (exactly $14,676,806) | Gunfire Games, Vigil Games, THQ Nordic |
 | I Am Your Beast | older | $19.99 | 5,275 97% | 158k | $3.2M (exactly $3,163,417) | Strange Scaffold |
 | LIZARDS MUST DIE | older | $3.99 | 23,315 96% | 699k | $2.8M (exactly $2,790,806) | Smola Game Studio |
 | Path of Kung Fu | $14.99 | 4,880 72% | 146k | $2.2M (exactly $2,194,536) | 游鲤化龙工作室 | |
 | YAR: Forgotten Throne | $19.99 | 1,283 89% | 38k | $769k (exactly $769,415) | Honor Games | |
 | Stickman Strikes: Conquer Fantasy World | $11.99 | 642 78% | 19k | $231k (exactly $230,927) | LGaoGame | |
 | EDENS ZERO | $59.99 | 92 80% | 2.8k | $166k (exactly $165,572) | KONAMI | |
 | Elder Legacy: Survival | · EA | $9.99 | 189 62% | 5.7k | $57k (exactly $56,643) | Honor Games |
 | Excoverse | $7.99 | 13 69% | 390 | $3.1k (exactly $3,116) | ExContinium Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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