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Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon Open World game?
Open World + Mystery Dungeon
Of 30 developers who shipped a Mystery Dungeon Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×1.1 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×153 the market median. Revenue is up 200% on the market; 51 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $120 (exactly $120) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.6k (exactly $1,648) |
| Top 25% | $8.1k (exactly $8,084) |
| Top 5% | $229k (exactly $228,742) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 30 |
| Released games | 93 |
| Announced | 51 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 200% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Mystery Dungeon
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Mystery Dungeon; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Action, Adventure
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 10,355 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 51 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Elin 2024 · EA · $5.0M 
We Are The Dwarves 2016 · $482k 
TRADESMAN: Deal to Dealer 2026 · $229k 
Monsters Domain 2024 · $163k 
Dungeon Dreams 2 2024 · $125k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Elin | · EA | $19.99 | 8,406 93% | 252k | $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) | Lafrontier |
| | We Are The Dwarves | older | $14.99 | 1,072 75% | 32k | $482k (exactly $482,078) | Whale Rock Games |
| | TRADESMAN: Deal to Dealer | $4.99 | 1,528 78% | 46k | $229k (exactly $228,742) | AZAMATIKA | |
| | Monsters Domain | older | $19.99 | 272 34% | 8.2k | $163k (exactly $163,118) | G-DEVS.com |
| | Dungeon Dreams 2 | older | $19.99 | 209 90% | 6.3k | $125k (exactly $125,337) | DDreams Games |
 | Mask of Mists | older | $14.99 | 171 85% | 5.1k | $77k (exactly $76,899) | 9 Eyes Game Studio |
 | Nightmare Hunter | older | $15.99 | 138 87% | 4.1k | $66k (exactly $66,199) | Circle Kurasuke Warehouse |
 | [Chilla's Art] The Caregiver | 終焉介護 | older | $4.99 | 431 80% | 13k | $65k (exactly $64,521) | Chilla's Art |
 | Spirit Animal Survival | $19.99 | 96 62% | 2.9k | $58k (exactly $57,571) | TRUEFX GAMES | |
 | Transliminal: Beyond The Backrooms | · EA older | $12.49 | 153 90% | 4.6k | $57k (exactly $57,329) | Corey Jeffries |
 | Runehaven | $9.99 | 119 91% | 3.6k | $36k (exactly $35,664) | Cikoria Studio | |
 | Dragonero | $19.99 | 38 68% | 1.1k | $23k (exactly $22,789) | Operaludica | |
 | The Maze Survivor: The 9th Entrants | $8.99 | 62 82% | 1.9k | $17k (exactly $16,721) | 崔资坦独立游戏Triztan IndieGame | |
 | Abyss: New Dawn | · EA | $24.99 | 19 63% | 570 | $14k (exactly $14,244) | Aloya Productions |
 | Digging the Forgotten Cave | $4.99 | 54 75% | 1.6k | $8.1k (exactly $8,084) | Cavernauts | |
 | Infinite Backrooms | · EA | $8.99 | 18 33% | 540 | $4.9k (exactly $4,855) | ww_azevedo |
 | Daughter of The Void | · EA | $9.99 | 15 100% | 450 | $4.5k (exactly $4,496) | Shaybabe |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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