Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + Word Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Word Game Open World game?

Open World + Word Game

Only 16 developers shipped a Word Game Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Noun Town Language Learning, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×1.1 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×283 the market median. Revenue is up 290% on the market; 21 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 290% on the market, 21 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Word Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $239 → $2.4k → $1.6k → $0 → $3.5k (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Word Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,619)
Top 25% $5.9k (exactly $5,930)
Top 5% $425k (exactly $424,588)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 38
Announced 21
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 290% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Word Game
effort 1 / 10 · high · dictionary logic and simple UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Word Game; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Puzzle, Simulation
Price point
$5.00 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cartoon, 2D, Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.00.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 1,108 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $5.9k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Noun Town Language Learning $19.99 708 84% 21k $425k (exactly $424,588) SUPER HYPER MEGA
灵墟 older $10.99 946 86% 28k $312k (exactly $311,896) HappyTall Game
Lingo older $9.99 788 93% 24k $236k (exactly $236,164) Brenton Wildes
TIME TO STARⅡ偶像之路终极版 $12.99 124 70% 3.7k $48k (exactly $48,323) 随便做做游戏组
The Quest For Excalibur - Puy Du Fou older $14.99 15 53% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) Balio Studio
鸿运修仙传 $5.99 34 76% 1.0k $6.1k (exactly $6,110) 玉米工作室
Horizons: The End Of Words $5.99 33 87% 990 $5.9k (exactly $5,930) PUNKCAKE Delicieux
Wuwei Cultivation $1.50 107 86% 3.2k $4.8k (exactly $4,815) 程序员小灰
Runren Simulator $1.99 59 91% 1.8k $3.5k (exactly $3,522) K.K.
Humanoid older $14.99 7 0% 210 $3.1k (exactly $3,148) BinaryBrigade, Seywan Jahani
云玩家:口口 $3.99 20 75% 600 $2.4k (exactly $2,394) 猫不在 / Cat404
FootballLife $17.99 3 33% 90 $1.6k (exactly $1,619) 小伍
Monkeys & Typewriters! · EA $2.99 15 93% 450 $1.3k (exactly $1,346) Mage & Friends
SUIKAWA LEAD $7.99 5 100% 150 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) くそいサイト

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.