Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + Bullet Time

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Time Open World game?

Open World + Bullet Time

Only 12 developers shipped a Bullet Time Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Killer Bean, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×0.9 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×682 the market median. Revenue is up 145% on the market; 23 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 145% on the market, 23 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Bullet Time
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $564 → $23k → $750 → $300 (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Bullet Time: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,317)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,776)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,021,718)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 55
Announced 23
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 145% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Bullet Time
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Bullet Time
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 2,453 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 23 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Max Payne 3 older $19.99 55,150 86% 1.7M $33M (exactly $33,073,455) Rockstar Studios
Quantum Break older $39.99 23,141 86% 694k $28M (exactly $27,762,258) Remedy Entertainment
Sniper: Ghost Warrior 2 older $9.99 13,694 75% 411k $4.1M (exactly $4,104,092) City Interactive
Heat Signature older $14.99 6,849 94% 205k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,995) Suspicious Developments
Sniper Elite: Nazi Zombie Army older $14.99 3,557 88% 107k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,583) Rebellion
Sniper: Ghost Warrior older $7.99 5,723 58% 172k $1.4M (exactly $1,371,803) City Interactive
Call of Juarez: Bound in Blood older $9.99 4,393 86% 132k $1.3M (exactly $1,316,582) Techland
GUN™ older $19.99 2,102 91% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,260,569) Neversoft
Call of Juarez older $9.99 3,732 81% 112k $1.1M (exactly $1,118,480) Techland
Killer Bean · EA $14.99 2,272 73% 68k $1.0M (exactly $1,021,718) Killer Bean Studios LLC
Sniper Camouflage Orange Spy Warrior I Buried Two Bodies in the Garden and the Police Haven't Figured Out Yet That They're Missing Because They Were a Lonely Old Couple Who Had No Relatives Simulator 2026 · EA $9.99 77 66% 2.3k $23k (exactly $23,077) The Only Way Out
Pirate Hunter $6.99 80 87% 2.4k $17k (exactly $16,776) DIOsoft
Law of Demons $12.99 5 60% 150 $1.9k (exactly $1,948) Sierra Nevada Tunis
RAGING BILL $19.99 3 66% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) ARTPUNK STUDIO
Farmsville · EA $3.99 11 100% 330 $1.3k (exactly $1,317) Farmsville Prod.
TIME SOUL $9.99 2 50% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Kubrick
A Game About Going Up $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Ragecore Games
Doom Drive $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Berk Kalfa
Birdshot $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Birdshot Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.