Games › Open World › Open World + Nature
Should I ship a Nature Open World game?
Open World + Nature
Of 294 developers who shipped a Nature Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 714 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×1.1 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $870k, ×582 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 714 games are announced against 176 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.7k (exactly $1,678) |
| Top 25% | $15k (exactly $14,985) |
| Top 5% | $872k (exactly $872,427) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 294 |
| Released games | 849 |
| Announced | 714 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Nature
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Simulation
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 3D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 103,596 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 148 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 714 games are announced against 176 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Far Cry® 5 2018 · $311M 
Planet Zoo 2019 · $110M 
theHunter: Call of the Wild™ 2017 · $102M 
MONSTER HUNTER RISE 2022 · $96M 
ICARUS 2021 · $59M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Far Cry® 5 | older | $59.99 | 172,897 81% | 5.2M | $311M (exactly $311,162,731) | Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Sh… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Kiev) |
| | Planet Zoo | older | $44.99 | 81,191 90% | 2.4M | $110M (exactly $109,583,493) | Frontier Developments |
| | theHunter: Call of the Wild™ | older | $19.99 | 170,472 89% | 5.1M | $102M (exactly $102,232,058) | Expansive Worlds |
| | MONSTER HUNTER RISE | older | $39.99 | 79,847 84% | 2.4M | $96M (exactly $95,792,446) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | ICARUS | older | $34.99 | 55,849 75% | 1.7M | $59M (exactly $58,624,695) | RocketWerkz |
 | Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 | $69.99 | 21,633 59% | 649k | $45M (exactly $45,422,810) | Asobo Studio | |
 | SnowRunner | older | $29.99 | 46,343 90% | 1.4M | $42M (exactly $41,694,797) | Saber Interactive |
 | Farming Simulator 22 | older | $19.99 | 69,477 93% | 2.1M | $42M (exactly $41,665,357) | GIANTS Software |
 | Maneater | older | $39.99 | 21,790 87% | 654k | $26M (exactly $26,141,463) | Tripwire Interactive |
 | Big Walk | $19.99 | 32,470 95% | 974k | $19M (exactly $19,472,259) | House House | |
 | WolfQuest: Anniversary Edition | $29.99 | 11,511 97% | 345k | $10M (exactly $10,356,447) | eduweb | |
 | Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered | $49.99 | 6,860 84% | 206k | $10M (exactly $10,287,942) | Guerrilla Games, Nixxes Software | |
 | Beast of Reincarnation | $59.99 | 4,188 56% | 126k | $7.5M (exactly $7,537,144) | GAME FREAK inc. | |
 | Railroads Online | $29.99 | 5,410 75% | 162k | $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) | Stefan Kelnberger | |
 | Len's Island | $24.99 | 5,935 82% | 178k | $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) | Flow Studio | |
 | Longvinter | $19.99 | 6,951 68% | 209k | $4.2M (exactly $4,168,515) | Uuvana Studios | |
 | Flotsam | $24.99 | 4,308 80% | 129k | $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) | Pajama Llama Games | |
 | MineMogul | · EA | $14.99 | 4,330 96% | 130k | $1.9M (exactly $1,947,201) | NoodleForge (Gvarados & Diomonder) |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.